Tag Archives: bet exchanges

Global Election Market = a play-money prediction exchange for forecasting all the world’s political elections

Posted on October 2, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Brought to you by CountryWatch, which has been providing “country intelligence, news, and forecasts for over 10 years — with customers both international and domestic customers in the academic, corporate, government and military markets.” Best wishes to them. – … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Software | Tagged Bet 2 Give, bet exchanges, Bet2Give, betting exchanges, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, evetn derivative exchanges, Global Election Market, NewsFutures, prediction exchanges, prediction market approach, Prediction Market Software, prediction markets, software for prediction markets | Leave a comment

Historical Prediction Markets

Posted on September 27, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The ProQuest P.R. machine sends Koleman Strumpf’s research paper on the historical prediction markets to all journalists, so as to generate good Press for ProQuest, and it works fine, as intended. [CORRECTION: Jack Shafer found the Strumpf paper on his … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta), Betting, Exchanges & Markets, History, Prediction Journalism, Regulations | Tagged bet exchanges, bet markets, betting exchanges, betting markets, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, finance. politics, historical prediction markets, History, Journalism, Koleman Strumpf, prediction exchanges, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, ProQuest, US politics, Wall Street | Leave a comment

2008 US Presidential and Congressional Elections Prediction: The Sarah Palin effect has partially evaporated, but its remains point to a close race, come Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

Posted on September 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, bet exchanges, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

ProTrade vs. Sports Derivative Exchange

Posted on September 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

I asked Chris Hibbert whether they are “exchanges”. Chris Hibbert: It looks like it from a cursory glance. In both cases, you can buy and sell, and the prices appear to be set by market interactions rather than institutional fiat. … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated), Mechanism Designs | Tagged automated market makers, bet exchanges, betting exchanges, betting markets, book orders, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, play-money prediction exchanges, play-money prediction makets, predcition markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, ProTrade, Sports, Sports Derivative Exchange, US sports | Leave a comment

The anti-BetFair Premium Charges video reappears on YouTube under a new account.

Posted on September 22, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The Ghost Of Premium Charges – PREVIOUSLY: BetFair impose new â€œPremium Chargesâ€â€¦ Do BetFair gag the critics, too? -

Posted in Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged bet exchanges, BetFair, BetFair charges, BetFair costs, BetFair fees, betting exchanges, betting markets, censorship, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Premium Charges, The Ghost Of Premium Charges, The Sporting Exchange, transaction charges, transaction costs, transaction fees, videos, YouTube videos | Leave a comment

Sports Derivative Exchange

Posted on September 22, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Sports Derivative Exchange A kind of HSX for sports. In beta. Best wishes to them. UPDATE: The SDX co-founder has a comment.

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged bet exchanges, betting exchanges, event derivative exchanges, play-money prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Sports, Sports Derivative Exchange | 5 Comments

Farewell to the Tech Buzz Game… and best wishes to YooPick.

Posted on September 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- YooPick -

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Resources - References | Tagged bet exchanges, betting exchanges, event derivative exchanges, play-money prediction exchanges, play-money prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Tech Buzz Game, Yahoo! Tech Buzz Game, Yahoo! YooPick, YooPick | Leave a comment

With regard to the 2008 US elections, both Justin Wolfers and Robin Hanson implied that BetFair is not as predictive “as it should be”.

Posted on September 19, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Previously: About Justin Wolfers’s column Justin Wolfers’ Freakonomics post (which suggests that BetFair would have a better predictive power if US traders could use it).

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity | Tagged arbitrage, bet exchanges, BetFair, betting exchanges, event derivaitive traders, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, Inkling, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, Justin Wolfers, NewsFutures, prediction exchanges, prediction market traders, prediction markets, predictive power, Robin Hanson, traders, US event derivative traders, US prediction market traders, US traders | Leave a comment

InTrade vs. the other prediction exchanges

Posted on September 18, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Justin Wolfers gives his views about the (now past) differences between the probabilistic predictions given by InTrade on the 2008 US presidential elections… and the ones generated by the other real-money and play-money prediction exchanges. One hypothesis: US political insiders … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged arbitrage, bet exchanges, BetFair, betting exchanges, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, Inkling, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, Justin Wolfers, NewsFutures, prediction exchanges, prediction markets | 2 Comments

Illiquid prediction exchanges to liquid prediction exchanges: “You’re too volatile.”

Posted on September 17, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Previously: Emile Servan-Schreiber on InTrade’s volatility

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity | Tagged accuracy, bet exchanges, betting exchanges, betting markets, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, IEM, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, liquidity, prediction exchanges, prediction markets | Leave a comment

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