Tag Archives: bet exchanges

Global Election Market = a play-money prediction exchange for forecasting all the world’s political elections

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 2, 2008 — Leave a Comment

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Brought to you by CountryWatch, which has been providing “country intelligence, news, and forecasts for over 10 years — with customers both international and domestic customers in the academic, corporate, government and military markets.”
Best wishes to them.
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Global Election Market is powered by the Bet2Give software, which I like less than the NewsFutures software. NewsFutures abides [...]

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Software | Also tagged Bet 2 Give, Bet2Give, betting exchanges, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, evetn derivative exchanges, Global Election Market, NewsFutures, prediction exchanges, prediction market approach, Prediction Market Software, prediction markets, software for prediction markets

Historical Prediction Markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 27, 2008 — Leave a Comment

The ProQuest P.R. machine sends Koleman Strumpf’s research paper on the historical prediction markets to all journalists, so as to generate good Press for ProQuest, and it works fine, as intended.
[CORRECTION: Jack Shafer found the Strumpf paper on his own. The ProQuest publicist sent him "a batch of clips on the topic culled by the [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta), Betting, Exchanges & Markets, History, Prediction Journalism, Regulations | Also tagged bet markets, betting exchanges, betting markets, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, finance. politics, historical prediction markets, History, Journalism, Koleman Strumpf, prediction exchanges, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, ProQuest, US politics, Wall Street

2008 US Presidential and Congressional Elections Prediction: The Sarah Palin effect has partially evaporated, but its remains point to a close race, come Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 23, 2008 — Leave a Comment

#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets
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A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor

ProTrade vs. Sports Derivative Exchange

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 23, 2008 — Leave a Comment

I asked Chris Hibbert whether they are “exchanges”.
Chris Hibbert:
It looks like it from a cursory glance. In both cases, you can buy and sell, and the prices appear to be set by market interactions rather than institutional fiat. They both have a feedback mechanism based on “dividends” produced by on-field performance. ProTrade has a [...]

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated), Mechanism Designs | Also tagged automated market makers, betting exchanges, betting markets, book orders, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, play-money prediction exchanges, play-money prediction makets, predcition markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, ProTrade, Sports, Sports Derivative Exchange, US sports

The anti-BetFair Premium Charges video reappears on YouTube under a new account.

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 22, 2008 — Leave a Comment

The Ghost Of Premium Charges

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PREVIOUSLY: BetFair impose new “Premium Charges”… Do BetFair gag the critics, too?
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Posted in Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Also tagged BetFair, BetFair charges, BetFair costs, BetFair fees, betting exchanges, betting markets, censorship, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Premium Charges, The Ghost Of Premium Charges, The Sporting Exchange, transaction charges, transaction costs, transaction fees, videos, YouTube videos

Sports Derivative Exchange

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 22, 2008 — 5 Comments

Sports Derivative Exchange
A kind of HSX for sports.
In beta.
Best wishes to them.
UPDATE: The SDX co-founder has a comment.

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged betting exchanges, event derivative exchanges, play-money prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Sports, Sports Derivative Exchange

Farewell to the Tech Buzz Game… and best wishes to YooPick.

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 20, 2008 — Leave a Comment

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YooPick
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Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Resources - References | Also tagged betting exchanges, event derivative exchanges, play-money prediction exchanges, play-money prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Tech Buzz Game, Yahoo! Tech Buzz Game, Yahoo! YooPick, YooPick

With regard to the 2008 US elections, both Justin Wolfers and Robin Hanson implied that BetFair is not as predictive “as it should be”.

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 19, 2008 — Leave a Comment

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Previously: About Justin Wolfers’s column
Justin Wolfers’ Freakonomics post (which suggests that BetFair would have a better predictive power if US traders could use it).

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity | Also tagged arbitrage, BetFair, betting exchanges, event derivaitive traders, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, Inkling, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, Justin Wolfers, NewsFutures, prediction exchanges, prediction market traders, prediction markets, predictive power, Robin Hanson, traders, US event derivative traders, US prediction market traders, US traders

InTrade vs. the other prediction exchanges

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 18, 2008 — 2 Comments

Justin Wolfers gives his views about the (now past) differences between the probabilistic predictions given by InTrade on the 2008 US presidential elections… and the ones generated by the other real-money and play-money prediction exchanges. One hypothesis: US political insiders can’t access BetFair, legally, and thus can’t arbitrage. (But they can trade legally on the [...]