Felix Salmon wins the ASA 2010 Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award

No Gravatar

American Statistical Association:

ALEXANDRIA VA, MAY 14, 2009 – Felix Salmon, a well known financial blogger who writes extensively about statistics, has been named the recipient of the 2010 Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award (ESRA) of the American Statistical Association (ASA). Salmon does quantitative, statistically minded reporting on topics ranging from the costs of counterfeiting to bank fraud to Nigerian spammers

ASA’s ESRA Committee selected Salmon &#8220-for his body of work, which exemplifies the highest standards of scientific reporting,” according to the award citation. “His insightful use of statistics as a tool to understanding the world of business and economics, areas that are critical in today&#8217-s economy, sets a new standard in statistical investigative reporting.&#8221-

Salmon came to the United States in 1997 from England, where he worked at Euromoney magazine. He also wrote daily commentary on Latin American markets for the former news service Bridge News, freelanced for a variety of publications, helped set up the New York bureau of a financial web site, and created the Economonitor blog for Roubini Global Economics. He has been blogging since 1999 and wrote the Market Movers blog for Portfolio.com. Salmon currently blogs at Thomson Reuters. ( http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/ ). He is a graduate of the University of Glasgow.

Previous winners of the ESRA include Sharon Begley, Newsweek magazine- Mark Buchanan, freelance science writer- Gina Kolata, New York Times- and John Berry, Bloomberg News.

The ESRA was created to encourage and recognize members of the communications media who have best displayed an informed interest in the science of statistics and its role in public life. The award can be given for a single statistical article or for a body of work. In selecting the recipient, consideration is given to:
Correctness, clarity, fairness, brevity, and professionalism of the communication
Importance, relevance and overall effectiveness in impacting the intended audience
Impact on the growth and national or regional exposure of statistics
Appreciation and emphasis of the statistical aspects of a particular issue or event
Excellent coverage of research on statistics or statistical issues

About the American Statistical Association
The American Statistical Association (ASA), a scientific and educational society founded in Boston in 1839, is the second oldest continuously operating professional society in the United States. For 170 years, ASA has been providing its 18,000 members serving in academia, government, and industry and the public with up-to-date, useful information about statistics. The ASA has a proud tradition of service to statisticians, quantitative scientists, and users of statistics across a wealth of academic areas and applications. For additional information about the American Statistical Association, please visit the association’s web site at http://www.amstat.org or call 703.684.1221.

Are good blogs driven by author personalities or by well drilled topics?

No Gravatar

Justin Wolfers has escaped the Overcoming Bias purge, it seems. Justin Wolfers&#8217-s 4 posts (published in 2007) remain archived on what is now Robin Hanson&#8217-s QUOTE personal blog UNQUOTE. By contrast, Eliezer Yudkowsky&#8217-s posts written for Overcoming Bias now redirect to locations at Less Wrong.

Justin Wolfers now blogs at Freakonomics (which is under the New York Times umbrella). By comparison to Overcoming His Bias, Freakonomics is a real group blog success. Years later after his creation, Freaknomics has a high degree of participation by his co-bloggers, and some brand-new guest bloggers were recently invited. Freakonomics is a sustainable group blog which develops one unique thematic &#8212-economics. Sorry to burst our Master Of All Universes&#8217-s bubble, but Freakonomics is the case-in-point that debunks the hypothesis that says that &#8220-blogs are best defined not by topic but by lead author personalities&#8221-.

As for Midas Oracle, who cares about Chris Masse&#8217-s personality, as long as one gets his/her prediction market dope on a daily basis?


Robin Hanson:

Chris, Eliezer was not “purged.” He requested to have his old posts moved to Less Wrong. No one else has made any similar request.

Eliezer was not “expelled”– he choose to move in order to build a community at Less Wrong using fancy comment karma software. The folks who wrote software for his new site also wrote the code at my new site.

Share This:

Google Web Search shows that I am the only blogger in the world to talk about prediction market journalism.

No Gravatar

Good thing: I&#8217-m a pioneer (following Justin Wolfers&#8217- footsteps).

Bad thing: The whole world does not give the first fig about &#8220-prediction market journalism&#8220-. We will spend much energy introducing them to this new concept.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • BetFair angel investor Sean Park says that Jed Christiansen’s anti-sport comment to the CFTC stinks like rotten dead fish under the Egyptian sun.
  • Did ex-HSX Max Keiser cowardly give up on his prediction market TV journalism project? His website, predictionmarkets.tv, now redirects to a clunky YouTube video webpage.
  • Big Brother
  • Enterprise prediction markets in Israel
  • 2 interesting links — Monday Morning Edition
  • Track Record Collecting vs. Prediction Markets
  • Why don’t prediction market people submit conference proposals for SXSW 2009?

A Mystery Wrapped In A Riddle Inside An Enigma – CFTC Edition

No Gravatar

How could that &#8220-exemption&#8221- guy have climbed to the top of Memeorandum even though there are no blogs listed that have discussed that WSJ piece?

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • In a blow to the French, BetFair choose Bastille Day to premiere the revised version of the bet-matching logic of their prediction markets. — IMPROVEMENT MEANS BETTER LIQUIDITY FOR THEIR EVENT DERIVATIVE TRADERS.
  • InTrade Spotting — Monday Morning Edition
  • Forecasting Principles should index BusinessWeek.
  • Caveat Bettor…
  • Yet another prediction market newbie who should be meeting with Robin Hanson one on one to get a little injection about conditional prediction markets and how they could be useful for BOTH private decision makers AND public policy makers.
  • We are now awaiting the CFTC’s decision on “event markets” (prediction markets)…
  • Why Midas Oracle will have to drop InTrade

BEWARE THE BLOGGING ACADEMICS: They are not blogging to inform us -they are blogging to promote themselves.

No Gravatar

The New York Times on the brand-new SSRN ranking functionality:

Bloggers like Mr. Reynolds [a university professor] tend to do well on the site, since they can promote their work and offer links to their articles.

Social Science Research Network – (SSRN)

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The best research papers on prediction markets
  • 2008 Electoral Map
  • American Enterprise Institute’s Center For Regulatory And Market Studies (Policy Markets)
  • IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets
  • Science
  • Why did prediction markets do well in the pre-polling era, professor Strumpf?
  • Mozilla FireFox users, do you have trouble downloading academic papers (as PDF files) from SSRN?

Prediction market journalism cant be practiced by the mainstream media. What we need is a revolution.

No Gravatar

The eyes-wide-opened Alexis Perrier notes that many &#8220-mainstream media&#8221- do talk about political prediction markets, these days.

But that&#8217-s a superficial coverage &#8212-basically, explaining to morons (surfacing from their Afghan cave) what InTrade does. The real thing is prediction market journalism &#8212-and to this day, only Justin Wolfers does practice it (once a month).

To get real PMJ done, we will need brand-new digital publications and brand-new people &#8212-just like the newly created tech blogs (like TechCrunch) are employing a new batch of writers, using new tools and new methods.

If you look at the 87 feeds I subscribe to, I get my IT news from professional blogs &#8212-not from mainstream media.

Prediction market journalism has a future only if professional blogs adopting this approach are to be created.

InTrade is not a bookie, and its traders are not gamblers.

No Gravatar

– Economic forecasters do pay attention to InTrade.

– Most InTrade traders are US citizens, or, at least, US residents &#8212-not &#8220-foreigners&#8221-.

I could go on. This post is riddled with inaccuracies.

It is the kind of stuff that explains InTrade to morons surfacing from their Afghan cave &#8212-as I told you 5 minutes ago. I&#8217-m fed up with that kind of superficial journalism. We all know what InTrade is. Let&#8217-s move on to real prediction market journalism.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Prediction Markets
  • Meet professor Justin Wolfers.
  • Become “friend” with me on Google E-Mail so as to share feed items with me within Google Reader.
  • Nigel Eccles’ flawed “vision” about HubDub shows that he hasn’t any.
  • How does InTrade deal with insider trading?
  • Modern Life
  • “The Beacon” is an excellent blog published by The Independent Institute.