Speculating on event derivative markets is not investing.

No GravatarUltra pertinent remark from the Club For Growth blogger:

[The New York Post video] is an informative video, but I want to quibble about two things. I view the term &#8220-investing&#8221- as the act of buying an asset with the hopes of it appreciating in value sometime in the future. Used correctly, you &#8220-invest&#8221- in a new home, a company on the stock exchange, or a baseball card collection.

However, you can&#8217-t &#8220-invest&#8221- in politics as the New York Post reporter said you could. The reason why you can&#8217-t is because contracts sold on prediction markets like InTrade.com are not assets– they are derivatives. Their value is based on the outcome of some event. Like futures contracts for frozen concentrated orange juice. [&#8230-]

I have been blogging about that for years, here, on Midas Oracle.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • If Midas Oracle were to meet, would we use Huddle, and why?
  • WORLD’S SUCH A SMALL PLACE: Smarkets meet HubDub.
  • 50% of our prediction market luminaries have a MacBook.
  • Ron Paul (R) and Barney Frank (D) ally together to attack “the practical hurdles of the federal law, known as the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, rather than its legitimacy”.
  • Clicking on the “SPHERE: RELATED CONTENT” button, at the bottom of each Midas Oracle post, will bring you a list of external webspots.
  • FRIGHTENING: Jed Christiansen’s prediction market blog was briefly overtaken by web spammers, who inserted invisible links to their commercial sites so as to game the Google PageRank system.

The concept of probabilistic prediction explained to the journalists and bloggers

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How to quote Hubdub

As well as being a fun place for people to make their own predictions, Hubdub also provides real value to anyone looking for numerical forecasts of the way a news story will turn out. At its core, Hubdub is a prediction market, which means the probabilities given for any of the hundreds of news stories we track are a combination of the thousands of pieces of information brought to bear on each question by our users. While Hubdub is still a young service building a track record of the accuracy of its forecasts, similar prediction markets (both play and real money) have found a very strong relationship between the forecast chances and reality. When quoting one of our forecasts, the correct terminology is to describe the percentage as a &#8220-percent chance&#8221- or &#8220-probability&#8221-, not what a percentage of our users think, as this is not what is measured. For example, &#8220-Hubdub is forecasting that Obama has a 67% chance of getting the nomination&#8221- is correct, whereas &#8220-67% of Hubdub users forecast that Obama will win the nomination&#8221- is incorrect. If in doubt please contact us.

What the hell is crowdsourcing???

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Crowdsourcing is a neologism for the act of taking a task traditionally performed by an employee or contractor, and outsourcing it to an undefined, generally large group of people, in the form of an open call. For example, the public may be invited to develop a new technology, carry out a design task, refine an algorithm or help capture, systematize or analyze large amounts of data.

[…] In some cases the labor is well-compensated. In other cases the only rewards may be kudos or intellectual satisfaction. Crowdsourcing may produce solutions from amateurs or volunteers working in their spare time, or from small businesses which were unknown to the initiating organization.

Perceived benefits of crowdsourcing include:
– Problems can be explored at comparatively little cost.
– Payment is by results.
– The organization can tap a wider range of talent than might be present in its own organisation.

The difference between crowdsourcing and ordinary outsourcing is that a task or problem is outsourced to the public, rather than another body. The difference between crowdsourcing and open source is that open source production is a cooperative activity initiated and voluntarily undertaken by members of the public. In crowdsourcing the activity is initiated by a client, and the work may be undertaken on an individual, as well as a group, basis. […]

Previously: CrowdSourcing = Wisdom Of Crowds = Collective Intelligence

SophistPundit – Finite Mathematics

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Set Theory

  1. Introduction
  2. The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle
  3. TI-83 Calculator Trick: Set Unions/Incercepts
  4. Permutations and Combinations
  5. The Binomial Theorem
  6. The Story Thusfar: A Cram Session Special
  7. Partitions and Multinomial Coefficients


  1. Introduction
  2. Experiment Probability vs. Probability of Outcome
  3. Calculating Probability for specific Events
  4. Conditional Probability and Related Lessons
  5. Bayes&#8217- Theorum


  1. Introduction
  2. Binomial Trials
  3. Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation
  4. The Normal Distribution

The Inkling explainers on prediction markets are absolutely awesome.

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It&#8217-s a fantastic set of practical explainers that Adam Siegel has built. It is well written, and these documents aggregate well many years of experience from the standpoint of a DIY betting exchange manager. It&#8217-s really good material, which I read many times this afternoon with great avidity.


To find the Inkling explainers:

– go to Inkling Markets

– click on &#8220-Run a free private prediction market pilot&#8220–

– fill in the form-

– go to your newly created prediction exchange (betting exchange)-

– on the right pane, go to &#8220-help / reference&#8221-.


HUMAN market makers = LEAD market makers

No Gravatar&#8230- in the One Chicago&#8217-s lingo.

As opposed to &#8220-automated market markers&#8221-.

My Question: Does anybody know what is the correct / most popular terminology, here?

Addendum: JC Kommer has posted a comment&#8230-

Anybody can trade via “automated market marking”.

With its &#8220-Lead Market Maker&#8221- program, OneChicago sends a clear signal: there is nobody here and if you come you will get screwed because the &#8220-Lead Market Maker&#8221- has certain privileges such as priority in the order queue and lower fees.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Collective Error = Average Individual Error – Prediction Diversity
  • When gambling meets Wall Street — Proposal for a brand-new kind of finance-based lottery
  • The definitive proof that it’s presently impossible to practice prediction market journalism with BetFair.
  • The Absence of Teams In Production of Blog Journalism
  • Publish a comment on the BetFair forum, get arrested.
  • If I had to guess, I would say about 50 percent of the “name pros” you see on television on a regular basis have a negative net worth. Frightening, I know.
  • You can’t measure the usefulness of a system by how many resources it consumes.