How to quote Hubdub
As well as being a fun place for people to make their own predictions, Hubdub also provides real value to anyone looking for numerical forecasts of the way a news story will turn out. At its core, Hubdub is a prediction market, which means the probabilities given for any of the hundreds of news stories we track are a combination of the thousands of pieces of information brought to bear on each question by our users. While Hubdub is still a young service building a track record of the accuracy of its forecasts, similar prediction markets (both play and real money) have found a very strong relationship between the forecast chances and reality. When quoting one of our forecasts, the correct terminology is to describe the percentage as a “-percent chance”- or “-probability”-, not what a percentage of our users think, as this is not what is measured. For example, “-Hubdub is forecasting that Obama has a 67% chance of getting the nomination”- is correct, whereas “-67% of Hubdub users forecast that Obama will win the nomination”- is incorrect. If in doubt please contact us.