The concept of probabilistic prediction explained to the journalists and bloggers

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How to quote Hubdub

As well as being a fun place for people to make their own predictions, Hubdub also provides real value to anyone looking for numerical forecasts of the way a news story will turn out. At its core, Hubdub is a prediction market, which means the probabilities given for any of the hundreds of news stories we track are a combination of the thousands of pieces of information brought to bear on each question by our users. While Hubdub is still a young service building a track record of the accuracy of its forecasts, similar prediction markets (both play and real money) have found a very strong relationship between the forecast chances and reality. When quoting one of our forecasts, the correct terminology is to describe the percentage as a &#8220-percent chance&#8221- or &#8220-probability&#8221-, not what a percentage of our users think, as this is not what is measured. For example, &#8220-Hubdub is forecasting that Obama has a 67% chance of getting the nomination&#8221- is correct, whereas &#8220-67% of Hubdub users forecast that Obama will win the nomination&#8221- is incorrect. If in doubt please contact us.

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