In France, prediction markets are hyped by 2 bozo economists -David Thesmar and Augustin Landier.

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Emile Servan-Schreiber is doing a great job of putting prediction markets on the French media scene. (As I type this, he is on French TV.)

2 green-foot French economists (David Thesmar and Augustin Landier) are hyping the prediction markets in the French media, using a non-scientific language (&#8220-predictive markets&#8221-, &#8220-stocks&#8221- *) and few references to hard facts. Their background is not stellar. They penned an Op-Ed in July 2007, titled, &#8220-The mega-crash won&#8217-t happen&#8221- [PDF file].

Of course, one year later, the developed world experienced (and is still experiencing) the worst financial crisis ever. What&#8217-s funny is that, in 2007, our 2 economists-in-chief were hyping the non-regulated credit derivatives that sent us into the depression, and denying the possibility of systemic risk. What a bunch of incompetents.

Emile, please recruit more serious people.

[*] The good vocabulary is &#8220-prediction markets&#8221-, and &#8220-traded bets&#8221- or &#8220-event derivatives&#8221-.

Next: French bozo economist Augustin Landier is hiding his 2007 Op-Ed that stated that the financial crisis “won’t happen”.

Next: French bozo economist David Thesmar is hiding his 2007 Op-Ed that stated that the financial crisis “won’t happen”.

New NewsFutures prediction exchange in France &#8212- play-money

And Today&#8217-s Le Figaro features prediction markets, Emile tells me&#8230- :-D

«Du coup, assure Emile Servan-Schreiber, on ne lit plus les articles de la meme maniere, un peu comme un analyste financier qui traque l&#8217-info pour ensuite s&#8217-en servir dans ses recommandations d&#8217-investissement.»

What happened to Inkling Markets?

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The Inkling Markets website is not on the first page for the &#8220-prediction markets&#8221- query at Google Search.

It appears on the 3rd page &#8212-where nobody will find them.

By the way, the NewsFutures website has re-made it to the 1st page.

eLab eXchange – Which real estate search site will see the most traffic?

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The eLab eXchange is up and running again with new markets and more to come on a regular basis!

Spring is the traditional home buying season and many real estate professionals are predicting a significant &#8220-spring bounce.&#8221- Will it happen? Try your hand at predicting the rise (or fall) in web traffic to 5 popular real estate search sites.

If you haven’t visited us lately, come back and see what we’ve got for you to judge:

Judge right and you can win $25 and have a chance to win the quarterly mega-prize.

Hope to see you soon,

Lawrence D. Wright, Ph.D.

Research Associate, UCR eLab eXchange

Prediction markets about science and technology

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NewsFutures + Science &amp- Vie (a science magazine published in the F country)

In French, alas, but I am sure Emile would lend the same technology to some English-speaking magazines in the U.S. or the U.K. that would want to open the same kind of prediction exchange for science.

Who needs pundits track records when we have prediction markets?

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Emile Servan-Schreiber:

Mr. Kristof, if you want to keep yourself accountable and track the success of your predictions in the long run and in real-time, why not simply participate in a prediction market such as NewsFutures?

You could suggest that particular stocks be listed in relation to particular new stories and their possible outcomes. Then, as you invest in particular outcomes, your prediction portfolio would either grow or shrink, providing us all with an objective measure of your foresight. You could feature on your blog a widget displaying in real-time the &#8220-net worth&#8221- of your various predictions.

Other advantages of this approach would include:

Forcing a detailed specification of possible outcomes-
Having you compete directly (bet against) the general public-
Measuring how much your columns can influence price movements for various predictions-
Leading by example to show other pundits how it&#8217-s done.

There are various types of prediction markets out there, so you can pick the venue where you&#8217-d feel most comfortable:

– Play-money only, like NewsFutures– [or HubDub :-D ]
– Real betting (illegal) like Intrade-
– Charity-driven, like Bet2give.

If the idea intrigues you, please contact me at [email protected] and we can get you started right away!

Emile Servan-Schreiber
CEO, NewsFutures


Readers, do click on the link (which will bring you to the New York Times), and do click on &#8220-Recommended&#8221- under Emile&#8217-s comment &#8212-so that his pitch for the prediction markets will be more visible to all the people reading the comments there. Thanks. Appreciated.