Sports Risk Index would allow you to hedge risks on sport prediction markets.

The patent.

The latest developments. (audio)

I am skeptical, since the US Congress has just outlawed movie prediction markets, but I wish good luck to Chris Rabelais et al. Maybe the political scene will be different next year, who knows.

UPDATE: As you’ve understood, I was talking about CFTC-approved real-money prediction markets, here.

Liberal politicians (sucking up to the Hollywood lobby) have managed to destroy one promising financial innovation applied to the movie business.

Cantor Fitzgerald abandoning box-office futures despite regulatory approval.

CNBC: The End of the Box Office Futures Business

The Wrap

CFTC approves the Cantor Exchange, but wont approve its movie box-office prediction markets.

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CFTC has approved the Cantor Exchange&#8230-

&#8230-but won&#8217-t approve its movie box-office prediction markets.


Why the CFTC wont approve the Cantor Exchange and the Trend Exchanges prediction markets on movie box office

Product approval (see below) is a different question from exchange approval (blogged previously by Mike Giberson).


CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton called it a a€?popcorn prediction market,a€? […]

Hollywood studios that participate by hedging their filmsa€™ prospects will doom ticket sales, said Peter Guber, chairman and CEO of independent production company Mandalay Pictures LLC.

a€?The word will get out in three seconds and the picture will be a complete catastrophe,a€? said Guber, who was chairman and CEO of Sony Pictures Entertainment in the early 1990s. […]

a€?We have serious concerns regarding the trading of media contracts and we support a very thorough review of all of these first-of-a-kind products,a€? CFTC Commissioner Scott Oa€™Malia said in an e-mailed statement.

U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln, an Arkansas Democrat, today added language banning trade in movie futures to a broader derivatives bill she is writing. Lincoln is chairman of the Agriculture Committee that oversees the commodity commission. […]

Activity on the exchanges would bring about a€?risky and manipulativea€? behavior, said Patrick Leahy, the Vermont Democrat who heads the Senate Judiciary Committee, and Senator Orrin Hatch, a Utah Republican.

a€?Ia€™m worried about manipulation,a€? Chilton said in an interview on Bloomberg Television before the vote.

“It is clear that the MPAA is not familiar with the futures markets or the regulatory framework within which they operate.

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The Futures Industry Association:

No one can argue that the movie-making business is without risk or that there is no need for effective risk management tools. The potential introduction of innovative instruments for managing that risk should be applauded rather than criticized.

Via Max Keiser

HSX-founder Max Keiser on the Cantor Exchange – [VIDEO]

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4 minutes into:

Jason Ruspini tells me that CNBC reports that the CFTC &#8220-lifted its stay&#8221- on the Cantor Exchange application yesterday. CNBC is going to interview Rich Jaycobs, today.

PS: You can play for free at: