The 45-degree Line

Via Steve Roman, Michael Abramowicz.

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • BetFair SP = BetFair Starting Price
  • Gary Flake to David Pennock: Come on board… or die.
  • Technology Futurism
  • Trade on BetFair-TradeFair as you would trade on TradeSports-InTrade, thanks to order-entry software BinarySoft.
  • Pervez Musharraf prediction markets –Eric Zitzewitz Edition
  • The Over-Round Explained
  • WHY THE PREDICTION MARKETS WILL LIKELY F**K UP SUPER TUESDAY 2008.

Barack Obamas victory in South Carolina wont stop the Clintons.

No GravatarDixit InTrade.

The Clintons

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South Carolina

The Barack Obama event derivative was expired to 100.

Dem SC Obama

Dem SC CLinton

Dem SC Edwards

Source: InTrade

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Many people twitter on prediction markets.
  • Folks, when you have something important to say, write up a full post, not a comment.
  • Prediction Market Journalism
  • TechCrunch is 221 times bigger than Midas Oracle.
  • Earthquake measuring 9.0 or more on Richter scale to occur anywhere on or before December 31, 2008
  • Why Midas Oracle (and not TV news shows or print newspapers) will dominate the future.
  • The Six Degrees Of Separation

The Glorious Incertitude Of Sports

2007-2008 NFC Championship &#8212- Giants vs. Packers &#8212- Source: TradeSports

The Giants event derivative was expired to 100.

NFC Giants

NFC Packers

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Hilarious.
  • Prediction market sessions of the O’Reilly Money-Tech Conference suffer fatally from the absence of the world’s most knowledgeable, most innovative and most trustworthy prediction market expert.
  • Bet2Give Presidential Widget —REDUX
  • Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams becomes embroilled in BetFair blog controversy.
  • Bet2Give Presidential Widget
  • Did the BetFair blog use trading data from InTrade to hint at BetFair’s accuracy??
  • WordPress powers the MSM’s blogs: NY Times, WSJ, CNN, Fox, Time and People.

Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada + Republican primary in South Carolina

Here are the event derivative charts of expired InTrade contracts.

[Psstt&#8230- I have high hopes about being able to publish the charts of expired BetFair contracts, too, soon. :-D ]

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Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada

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Democratic caucus in Nevada (the Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired at 100):

Dem Nevada Clinton

Dem Nevada Obama

Dem Nevada Edwards

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Republican caucus in Nevada (the Mitt Romney event derivative was expired at 100):

Rep Nevada Romney

Rep Nevada McCain

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Republican primary in South Carolina

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Republican primary in South Carolina (the John McCain event derivative was expired to 100):

Rep SC McCain

&#8220-Field&#8221- = Mike Husckabee

Rep SC Field

Rep SC Romney

Rep SC Thompson-F

Source: InTrade

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Super Bowl XLII
  • The Glorious Incertitude Of Sports
  • TradeSports Cost Of Transaction
  • The prediction market industry needs people who have balls.
  • Is it good to have a prediction market melting pot of academics and businesses?
  • Is it time to buy some Michael Bloomberg event derivatives?
  • Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams excluded from the BetFair blog feed

The BetFair blog claims a worldwide victory.

UPDATE: I just got it that Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams&#8217-s story and the BetFair compound chart published on top of his story should be understood independently from each other, as this chart was pasted there by the BetFair blog editor.

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Winston Churchill

Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams on the official BetFair blog:

[&#8230-] Those taking the same advice on Tuesday evening [2008-01-15 = date of the Michigan primary] were similarly well rewarded as well-backed Mitt Romney stormed into clear favouritism in the markets and a comfortable victory at the polls. After a blip in the New Hampshire Democratic primary the old certainties – that election favourites tend to win elections – was re-established.

As in the Republican New Hampshire primary, the polls and pundits had declared the race between Senator McCain and Governor Romney as a toss-up while the betting markets pointed to a comfortable victory in both cases for the eventual winners. Once again, in the battle of the polls, pundits and markets, the power of the betting markets to assimilate the collective knowledge and wisdom of the crowd had prevailed. [&#8230-]

No BetFair charts are provided. Bad prediction market journalism.

UPDATE: The compound chart was under my very nose:

Michigan BeFair

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UPDATE: I just got it that Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams&#8217-s story and the BetFair compound chart published on top of his story should be understood independently from each other, as this chart was pasted there by the BetFair blog editor.

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UPDATE: The BetFair blog has added a new label on the infamous compound chart&#8230-

Compound chart - BetFair blog fiasco

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NEXT: Did the BetFair blog use trading data from InTrade to hint at BetFair&#8217-s accuracy??

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For your information, I re-publish below the InTrade charts of the last 3 primary races (Wyoming excluded). [BetFair and NewsFutures do not provide on their site the charts of expired contracts. I could ask them later, though.]

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Iowa

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The Democrats.

The Barack Obama event derivative was expired to 100.

Dem Iowa Obama

Dem Iowa Clinton

Dem Iowa Edwards

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The Republicans

The Mike Huckabee event derivative was expired to 100.

Rep Iowa Huckabee

Rep Iowa omney

Rep Iowa McCain

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New Hampshire

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The Democrats

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The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100.

Dem NH Clinton

Dem NH Obama

Dem NH Edwards

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The Republicans

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The John McCain event derivative was expired to 100.

Rep NH McCain

Rep NH Romney

Rep NH Huckabee

Rep NH Giuliani

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Michigan

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The Democrats

The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100.

MI Dem Clinton

MI Dem Obama

MI Dem Edwards

MI Dem Field

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The Republicans

The Mitt Romney event derivative was expired to 100.

MI Rep Romney

MI Rep McCain

MI Rep Giuliani

MI Rep Field

Source: InTrade


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Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Are David Pennock’s search engine prediction markets the worst marketing disaster since the New Coke?
  • Midas Oracle is incontestably [*] the best vertical portal to prediction markets.
  • Comment spam paid by Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures-Bet2Give
  • BetFair Games needs a Swedish provider to develop its gambling offerings.
  • When Markets Beat the Polls – Scientific American Magazine
  • Robin Hanson has some fanboy in India. Great. Tiny caveat: The parroting Indian writer does not acknowledge Robin Hanson by name.
  • Molecular Nanotechnology

Justin Wolfers aftermath article in the Wall Street Journal

No GravatarNot his best piece.

I&#8217-m sure he&#8217-ll produce a better piece on Freaknomics, or Marginal Revolution, later on. Or in one of his papers.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Last year’s best April Fool’s Day Joke had something to do with the Wisdom Of Crowds.
  • Will HedgeStreet USA, the hypothetical InTrade USA, and the hypothetical TradeFair USA, be regulated in the future by a merged SEC+CFTC regulatory structure?
  • WORST THAN ELIOT SPITZER (if it were possible): Formula One boss, Max Mosley, had sado-masochist sex with 5 prostitutes, for 5 hours (!!), reenacting a concentration camp scene (!!) in which he played the role of both Nazi guard and inmate.
  • Is BetFair Poker a booby trap for the gullible novices? Does The Sporting Exchange (the operator of the BetFair brands) help gangs plucking down innocent recreational poker players?? To get an inkling, don’t read The Guardian, seeded by the BetFair spin doctor- read Midas Oracle.
  • The video that the technologically retarded BetFair spin doctor should watch.