How Bets Among Employees Can Guide a Company’-s Future –- Internal prediction markets enable colleagues to wager on the fate of crucial projects and the success of products in the pipeline. –- Technology Review
Category Archives: Collective Forecasting
Social B.I. … or social B.S. … ?
You will be the judge.
Emile Servan-Schreiber @ Lumenogic
NewsFutures has become Lumenogic.
“-Collective intelligence for senior leadership”-…- —- the word in bold tells us a lot.
BetFairs guerilla marketing on General Election 2010 – [VIDEO]
The “-betometer”- concept was poorly conceived. However, overall, it is a good tactic. It is a win.
The URLs of the UKs General Election 2010
Gordon Brown’-s gaffe (“-bigoted woman”-, Gillian Duffy):
Aljazeera TV promotes the lie that prediction markets are eerily accurate, sucking up to InTrades PR and Hansons spinning. – [VIDEO]
Twitter is more predictive than the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX). – [RESEARCH]
You could turnA Bernardo Huberman‘-s study around and say that the HSX traders are not yet using Twitter as a source to the full extent possible.
MAT FOGARTY FOR PRESIDENT
Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.
I’-m not sure if you should particularly care about the little 5 or 10 point hedges (usually to the pessimistic side) that I’-ve periodically been recommending around the Intrade contract on the chances of reform passing. Even if you staffed a whole room full of the smartest vote-counters, modelers and analysts and had them work 24/7 on trying to beat the Intrade contract, I’-m not sure if they could come up with anything sufficiently rigorous to provide them with a real advantage. (That doesn’-t necessarily mean the market is “-efficient”-, but we’-ll save that conversation for another day.) But for what it’-s worth, the Intrade contract, which is trading at 75 percent right now, now looks about right to me or perhaps even a hair pessimistic.
More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.
BRITISH CRETINERY: The Financial Times features the InTrade probabilities -not the BetFair ones.
This is really stupid. The decerebrated journalos at the FT chose to feature the illiquid, Ireland-based, un-regulated InTrade prediction markets instead of the very liquid, UK-based, regulated BetFair prediction markets on the next British congress.
Makes no sense at all.
The BetFair PR boys have an omelet on their face. They should work harder.
DISAMBIGUATION: The “-illiquid”- adjective refers to the UK political markets on InTrade —-not the US political prediction markets.