British electors dont want to change their electoral system. – [PREDICTION MARKET]

Question asked on May 5, 2011 (United Kingdom Alternative Vote referendum):

At present, the UK uses the “first past the post” system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should the “alternative vote” system be used instead?

Here&#8217-s BetFair&#8217-s prediction market on the YES side:

Tipped by Mike Robb.

BetFair set a price range for its initial public offering on the London Stock Exchange at $17.48 to $22.25 a share, valuing its equity at up to $2.35 billion.

&#8220-The wide price range, for an equity value between ?1.16 billion and ?1.48 billion, reflects mixed views on the company&#8217-s prospects for growth in countries with strict regulations on gambling, such as the U.S., and for its new financial-trading platform, LMAX.&#8221-

It is now legal in the UK to lay down your own horses. – [Industry Jurisprudence]

– In the Harry Finlay case, the BHA appeal panel says that in its view, &#8220-a clear distinction needs to be drawn between a lay bet placed as part of a corrupt practice or even conspiracy and a betting strategy which has not interfered in any way with the integrity of the race and in particular the running of the horse in question.&#8221-


Mark Davies&#8217-s take.

All links thru Niall O&#8217-Connor, who also alerts us about the future BetFair flotation.

All 3 British political leaders fell for the global warming scam.

No Gravatar

Solar activity and cosmic rays drive the Earth’s climate.

Global warming due to human-produced CO2 is the biggest scientific imposture of all times.

These 3 political leaders are all wrong.

The URLs of the UKs General Election 2010

No Gravatar,_2010

Gordon Brown&#8217-s gaffe (&#8220-bigoted woman&#8221-, Gillian Duffy):

Odds on hung parliament in UK shorten after TV debate

No Gravatar

So what effect did the UK&#8216-s first ever televised prime ministerial debate featuring Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg have on the political betting market?

Before the debate, the betting market on Betfair regarding who if anybody would secure an overall majority was as follows- Conservative Majority 1.75- No Overall Majority 2.68- Labour Majority 17.0.

After the debate, the market was betting as follows: Conservative Majority 1.83- No Overall Majority 2.54- Labour Majority 17.5.

Consensus opinion held that the Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg had performed best, and, there is little doubt that this debate represented a significant turning points as regards the publics perception of him.   If he performs as well in the next two debates, this will have serious implications as regards the probability of a hung parliament.  Accordingly, one would anticipate that the odds on No Overall Majority are likely to shorten further ahead of the actual election.