Did Florian Riahi of Texodus Predictions really read those academic papers about prediction markets?

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I described in a previous post why I delisted his company from my list of prediction market consultants.

I want to share a remark with you, today. Here is a man from Holland who recruited by e-mail some US-based &#8220-advisors&#8221- &#8212-one ocean away. One curious online recruit he made is professor Christopher Wlezien, the co-author of an academic paper&#8230- that claims that prediction markets are *NO* better than damped polls:

For now, our results suggest the need for much more caution and less naive cheerleading about election markets on the part of prediction market advocates.

I bet that Florian Riahi didn&#8217-t read that paper, and I bet that professor Christopher Wlezien accepted the advisory slot in order to make the simple point that the &#8220-prediction market advocates&#8221- are just a bunch of baloneys who don&#8217-t read academic papers. :-D


– How that prediction market consultant in Holland attracts economic advisers on the cheap

– I bet that those academic scholars…

Removal of Florian Riahi of Texodus Predictions

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Dear readers,

I am informing you of the removal of Texodus Predictions from my listing of prediction market consultants. The listing is intended to display serious and professionally minded consultants, only.

Thanks for your attention.


– How that prediction market consultant in Holland attracts economic advisers on the cheap

– I bet that those academic scholars…

How that prediction market consultant in Holland attracts economic advisers on the cheap

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I am writing on behalf of [PREDICTION MARKET SOFTWARE VENDOR’S NAME], a Netherlands based consulting firm, because our research has identified you as a scholar with some expertise in Prediction Markets or a related field. [THEY JUST SCRAPPED MIDAS ORACLE’S LISTINGS] We would like to assess your suitability and interest to join the panel of scientific advisors with [PREDICTION MARKET SOFTWARE VENDOR’S NAME] (www.url.com).

In doing so, we propose to explore your area of experience and knowledge of Prediction Markets. Having established this, we would like to list you as our scientific advisor on your area of expertise on Prediction Markets. This will allow us to seek your services for a negotiated fee, once your particular expertise in developing or interpreting a Prediction Market issue is required.

I trust this message clarifies in short the mutual benefits in our cooperation. Please feel free to contact me to discuss further details.


Communications Manager

The prediction market consultants who matter -and the others who dont

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Who are the prediction market consultants who took part of the conversation prompted by the publication of the devastating story by The Economist?

Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets

Mat Fogarty of CrowdCast

George Tziralis of AskMarkets

Jed Christiansen of Mercury

Notably absent from the conversation:

– David Perry of Consensus Point

– &#8220-Chief Scientist&#8221- Robin Hanson of Consensus Point

– Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures

– Chris Hibbert of Zocalo

– The HSX people

– The academic canaries who are over-quoted by the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal

Taking all this into account, I am updating my &#8220-Consultants&#8221- listing published at CFM. I am putting the consultants who participate in web conversations ahead of the others, and in bold, so as to signal to my numerous readers who they should contact first &#8212-should they have any inquiry about enterprise prediction markets. And I will consider doing the same for the other Midas Oracle listings.

Starting today, there will be retaliations of measured and graduated amplitude against any prediction market people or prediction market company who snobs the important conversations about prediction markets &#8212-which take place on Midas Oracle or elsewhere.

You can&#8217-t be bragging everywhere that you are a &#8220-prediction market expert&#8221- and be absent from important conversations. If you don&#8217-t converse with us, then you are not such a good expert &#8212-&#8221-you&#8217-re the weakest link, bye bye.&#8221-

NEXT: It is not about Midas Oracle&#8230- It is about taking part of the conversation about (enterprise) prediction markets on the Web.

Competitive Forecasting (the brand which NewsFutures Emile Servan-Schreiber is so sanguine about) is probably more than a generic mark, it might well be a descriptive mark -provided X, Y and Z.

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Tom W. Bell – (a law professor who have been following the field of prediction markets for years):

My two cents on “competitive forecasting”: It probably rises above a merely generic mark, which could never be protected, because it is not the commonplace name for the service to which it refers. It more likely qualifies as a descriptive mark, and as such could be protected only if “secondary meaning” were proven. In other words, the claimant would have to show that by dint of long exposure to its use in a commercial context, consumers had come to understand the mark not as a mere description but as the name of the claimant’s service. Whether or not “competitive forecasting” can meet that test remains a question of fact, of course.

Caveat: I speak only of U.S. law, though most common law countries follow similar principles.


PostScriptum: Put aside that discussion about branding, I like NewsFutures as a play-money prediction exchange, and I have come to realize, e-mailing Emile privately, that he is one of the man I would go for to have an in-depth foray into the real value of the prediction markets (going beyond accuracy, onto utility) &#8212-ironically, the kind of stuff that Robin Hanson is researching more seriously these days (PPT file).

Is Spigit stealing the Best Buy quotes on enterprise prediction markets that does in fact belong to Consensus Point (which is the software vendor that has Best Buy as its customer)?

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Look at the quote at the bottom of this webpage.

UPDATE: They have just brought the Best Buy quote down. :-D

Robin Hanson is now Chief Scientist of Consensus Point.

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Robin Hanson is now Chief Scientist of Consensus Point.

Here&#8217-s the expanded list of Consensus Point customers &#8212-Fortune-500 firms, mainly.

Here&#8217-s their definition of what is a prediction market.

Here&#8217-s their product page.

With Inkling Markets and NewsFutures, Consensus Point is the co-leader in the enterprise prediction markets space.

Best wishes to all of them.