Some enterprise prediction markets work very well… -some others are just a waste of time.

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Jed Christiansen:

[…] When it comes to the first point, forecasting something that the company already forecasts, prediction markets may or may not be an excellent solution. I’ve seen one set of markets that absolutely blew away the accuracy of current forecasts, and I’ve seen other markets that were consistent with current forecasts with little or no accuracy edge. […]

Care to say more about what is the determinant of an EPM success?

The prediction market consultants who matter -and the others who dont

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Who are the prediction market consultants who took part of the conversation prompted by the publication of the devastating story by The Economist?

Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets

Mat Fogarty of CrowdCast

George Tziralis of AskMarkets

Jed Christiansen of Mercury

Notably absent from the conversation:

– David Perry of Consensus Point

– &#8220-Chief Scientist&#8221- Robin Hanson of Consensus Point

– Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures

– Chris Hibbert of Zocalo

– The HSX people

– The academic canaries who are over-quoted by the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal

Taking all this into account, I am updating my &#8220-Consultants&#8221- listing published at CFM. I am putting the consultants who participate in web conversations ahead of the others, and in bold, so as to signal to my numerous readers who they should contact first &#8212-should they have any inquiry about enterprise prediction markets. And I will consider doing the same for the other Midas Oracle listings.

Starting today, there will be retaliations of measured and graduated amplitude against any prediction market people or prediction market company who snobs the important conversations about prediction markets &#8212-which take place on Midas Oracle or elsewhere.

You can&#8217-t be bragging everywhere that you are a &#8220-prediction market expert&#8221- and be absent from important conversations. If you don&#8217-t converse with us, then you are not such a good expert &#8212-&#8221-you&#8217-re the weakest link, bye bye.&#8221-

NEXT: It is not about Midas Oracle&#8230- It is about taking part of the conversation about (enterprise) prediction markets on the Web.


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Jed Christiansen will never be a cheerleader for the prediction market industry as long as he holds those wrong views about betting on sports.

InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney and HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles might be seen as &#8220-prediction market gurus&#8221-, at least by some &#8212-I doubt very strongly that many industry people will add Jed in the list, after they have read the conformist bullshit that he sent to the CFTC.

We are still waiting Jed&#8217-s reaction on Sean Park&#8217-s comment. Cat got your tongue, Jed? At other times, we couldn&#8217-t stop you.

Using enterprise prediction markets too early in the innovation process is BAD.

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Jed Christiansen:

I don&#8217-t think that prediction markets need to be the incentive.

I think that when it comes to generating ideas, you need to be as open and inclusive as possible. The process should allow anyone that submits or helps develop an idea to share in any rewards from that idea. Once it&#8217-s developed, then it can move to a stage where you can do forecasting via a prediction market.

Using a prediction market too early can do two things:
1- Poor forecasting due to social influence.
2- Limit revolutionary new ideas.
It&#8217-s too easy to short an idea that looks strange, when in fact it looks odd because it&#8217-s revolutionary. The idea process should foster and develop ideas, not make them compete against each other.

I&#8217-m glad to have sparked a little discussion here.

Previously: Innovation Mechanism = Voting Mechanism + Prediction Market Mechanism

Innovation Mechanism = Voting Mechanism + Prediction Market Mechanism

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Xpree&#8217-s Mat Fogarty (responding to Jed Christiansen, even though Jed didn&#8217-t talk to him but to Emile Servan-Schreiber :-D &#8212-argh, kids, today, interrupting adults&#8217- conversations :-D ):

We have had success combining voting to rank the ideas, then prediction markets to analyze the potential of the top ranked ideas. The phrasing in the prediction market needs to be quite specific, if we invested in idea A, how long would it take to get to market? how much would we sell in the first year? If the company does not invest in idea A, then the money bet in the market is returned to the user.

With long development cycles this can be challenging as it requires keeping the market active until ship, or for the sales estimate, one year after ship.

Of course, you could use a preference market – but this has issues of information cascades and rewarding of group think.


Here&#8217-s the Xpree stuff which Mat is talking about.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.
  • Tom W. Bell rebuts the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).

FRIGHTENING: Jed Christiansens prediction market blog was briefly overtaken by web spammers, who inserted invisible links to their commercial sites so as to game the Google PageRank system.

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I wonder how that could have happened, and what IT was involved for that trick.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Just like the armchair generals (presented on television as “military analysts”) carry the Pentagon’s propaganda, are our economics professors (who need the exchange data to pursue their academic career) in fact John Delaney’s unofficial P.R. agents, hidden behind an appearance of objectivity, and whose agenda is to generate favorable news coverage for InTrade? Is the symbiotic relationship between the prediction exchanges and the economics researchers dangerous for the truth?
  • Can we still trust Betfair? Should we trust Betfair? Or indeed, any betting exchange?
  • Prediction Markets at Google — by Peter A. Coles, Karim R. Lakhani, Andrew McAfee
  • Is that HubDub’s Nigel Eccles on the bottom left of that UK WebMission pic?
  • Collective Error = Average Individual Error – Prediction Diversity
  • When gambling meets Wall Street — Proposal for a brand-new kind of finance-based lottery
  • The definitive proof that it’s presently impossible to practice prediction market journalism with BetFair.

YouTube Videos on Prediction Markets

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I have created a &#8220-Prediction Market Videos&#8221- category in my &#8220-Links&#8221- page. I have listed there the InTrade and the Jed Christiansen webspots at YouTube.

Any other link(s) to suggest, folks?

Jed Christiansen: What is a prediction market?

Jed Christiansen: How can I use a prediction market for my business?