Using enterprise prediction markets too early in the innovation process is BAD.

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Jed Christiansen:

I don&#8217-t think that prediction markets need to be the incentive.

I think that when it comes to generating ideas, you need to be as open and inclusive as possible. The process should allow anyone that submits or helps develop an idea to share in any rewards from that idea. Once it&#8217-s developed, then it can move to a stage where you can do forecasting via a prediction market.

Using a prediction market too early can do two things:
1- Poor forecasting due to social influence.
2- Limit revolutionary new ideas.
It&#8217-s too easy to short an idea that looks strange, when in fact it looks odd because it&#8217-s revolutionary. The idea process should foster and develop ideas, not make them compete against each other.

I&#8217-m glad to have sparked a little discussion here.

Previously: Innovation Mechanism = Voting Mechanism + Prediction Market Mechanism

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