Post-Mortem Predictions

• 2008 US Elections
• 2004 US Elections
• 2000 US Elections
• 2011 Osama Bin Laden Elimination
• 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant
• 2011 Fukushima Earthquake

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2008 US Elections

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2008 US Presidential Elections

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2008 Democratic Nomination

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2008 Republican Nomination

Source: InTrade

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2008 US Presidential Election

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

Source: InTrade

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Political Party

Source: InTrade

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2008 Electoral College

Source: InTrade

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2008 US Congressional Elections Winner – Political Party

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2008 US Senate Control

Source: InTrade

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2008 US House Of Representatives Control

Source: InTrade

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2008 U.S. Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market

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2008 U.S. Presidential Election Vote Share Market

Source: Iowa Electronic Markets

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2004 US Elections – 2004 US Presidential Elections

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2000 US Elections – 2000 US Presidential Elections

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2011 Osama Bin Laden Elimination

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2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant

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2011 Fukushima Earthquake

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Current Predictions

– Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Current Prediction Markets

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