Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.

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Nate Silver:

I&#8217-m not sure if you should particularly care about the little 5 or 10 point hedges (usually to the pessimistic side) that I&#8217-ve periodically been recommending around the Intrade contract on the chances of reform passing. Even if you staffed a whole room full of the smartest vote-counters, modelers and analysts and had them work 24/7 on trying to beat the Intrade contract, I&#8217-m not sure if they could come up with anything sufficiently rigorous to provide them with a real advantage. (That doesn&#8217-t necessarily mean the market is &#8220-efficient&#8221-, but we&#8217-ll save that conversation for another day.) But for what it&#8217-s worth, the Intrade contract, which is trading at 75 percent right now, now looks about right to me or perhaps even a hair pessimistic.

Prediction Market Chart


More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

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