Jason Ruspini (who feels that the health care reform proposal might well be adopted) wanna feedback from you, folks.
- Which InTrade prediction market(s) has/have been ahead of the Press (rather than the other way around)? What is/are the best (most divergent from the commentary, and correct) InTrade prediction market(s) in people’-s memories?
- Do you sense that the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade fits these 2 criteria?
UPDATE: I asked The Brain whether he meant generalist media or political media, and he meant “-generalist”-. That makes all the difference in the world.
More info on health care reform on Memeorandum.
Previously: Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?
I didn’t express a trading opinion. If anything, I would be short back towards 60-50%.
The unscientific impression I got from commentary suggests, and has suggested, a lower probability than that given by Intrade. For one thing it seems like whenever someone cites Intrade odds, they are presented as surprisingly high.
Carlos’ piece is also pertinent for this thread:
Little to No Evidence of Market Manipulation on Intrade
Via Andrew Gooldberg
Slate says ObamaCare is at 55%.