Mitt Romney [or Sarah Palin] will be the Republican vice presidential nominee.

No Gravatar

Tim Pawlenty won&#8217-t go in Dayton, Ohio. So, it&#8217-s Mitt Romney.

The play-money and real-money prediction markets were easily fooled with the Pawlenty rumors, yesterday.

That vindicates my message that the VP prediction markets feed on unreliable primary indicators.

I said from day one to be careful with the VP prediction markets.

I told you so.

UPDATE: It&#8217-s probably Sarah Palin.

Tim… Who?

No Gravatar

Link to the InTrade prediction market.

Below, I try to hot-link to the chart, I&#8217-m not sure at this point it will work. We will see.

Tim Pawlenty

Tim Pawlenty

The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. – Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight.

No Gravatar

The New York Times has a recount on how Barack Obama reached his decision on Joe Biden. The final decision was probably made 10 days ago, while Barack Obama was vacationing in Hawaii.

[…] Mr. Obama’s decision had as much to do with Mr. Biden’s appeal among white working-class voters and compelling personal story, and his conclusion that the Delaware senator was &#8220-a worker.&#8221-

The important information in the NYT piece is that Barack Obama personally called governor Bill Richardson &#8220-late last week&#8221- to announce him that he was not considered anymore. That&#8217-s around the time the Joe Biden rumor began to have more weight in the media circles &#8212-see the InTrade chart below.

Bo Cowgill, back in May 2008 (when I started to act as a prophet of doom):

This is dumb. Cover them if something interesting happens. Maybe your theory will turn out to be wrong. Anyhow: Although the decision is made in secrecy, the Presidential nominees have a number incentives which we have plenty of information about. Specifically:
* They want someone who will balance their tickets in terms of geography, race and class.
* They want someone who will help with weak areas of their campaigns.
* They want someone who will be a good campaign surrogate — giving good speeches and attacking the opponents effectively.
* They want to avoid a VP who will de-motivate or offend the base.
* They want to avoid someone with a bunch of skeletons in the closet such as angry ex-wives, out-of-wedlock kids, etc.
* Etc etc.
Anyhow, I don’t see any reason to ignore these markets in case something interesting happens. I read Midas Oracle so that I don’t *have* to read a whole bunch of other websites!

Bo Cowgill was on the right track, now that I think of it &#8212-in a society where everything leaks out.

On the opposite of the spectrum, Tom Snee was too much extreme in his view:

According to Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Market, at Iowa University, futures markets need more hard information than they get in the veepstakes, to reliably predict a result.

Markets are very good at predicting elections, he says – but not choices being made inside Barack Obama&#8217-s or John McCain&#8217-s head.

Justin Wolfers was more measured.

So, Bo Cowgill and Justin Wolfers are the winners, on that one.

I was partially wrong. I am a bit too extreme, sometimes. (Did someone else notice that? :-D ) I need to learn more about&#8230- granularity.

PS: On the Republican side, now&#8230-

Price for 2008 Republican VP Nominee (others upon request)(expired at convention) at intrade.com

Who will be the Republican Vice Presidential Nominee?

Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada + Republican primary in South Carolina

Here are the event derivative charts of expired InTrade contracts.

[Psstt&#8230- I have high hopes about being able to publish the charts of expired BetFair contracts, too, soon. :-D ]

&#8212-

&#8212-

Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada

&#8212-

Democratic caucus in Nevada (the Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired at 100):

Dem Nevada Clinton

Dem Nevada Obama

Dem Nevada Edwards

&#8212-

Republican caucus in Nevada (the Mitt Romney event derivative was expired at 100):

Rep Nevada Romney

Rep Nevada McCain

&#8212-

&#8212-

Republican primary in South Carolina

&#8212-

Republican primary in South Carolina (the John McCain event derivative was expired to 100):

Rep SC McCain

&#8220-Field&#8221- = Mike Husckabee

Rep SC Field

Rep SC Romney

Rep SC Thompson-F

Source: InTrade

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Super Bowl XLII
  • The Glorious Incertitude Of Sports
  • TradeSports Cost Of Transaction
  • The prediction market industry needs people who have balls.
  • Is it good to have a prediction market melting pot of academics and businesses?
  • Is it time to buy some Michael Bloomberg event derivatives?
  • Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams excluded from the BetFair blog feed

The Michigan primary as seen thru the prism of the InTrade prediction markets

No Gravatar

Michigan, U.S.A. &#8212- Tuesday, January 15, 2008

&#8212-

The Democrats

The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100.

MI Dem Clinton

MI Dem Obama

MI Dem Edwards

MI Dem Field

&#8212-

The Republicans

The Mitt Romney event derivative was expired to 100.

MI Rep Romney

MI Rep McCain

MI Rep Giuliani

MI Rep Field

Source: InTrade