The Michigan primary as seen thru the BetFair prediction markets

No Gravatar

Thanks to Michael Robb from BetFair, I can show you the charts of the last day of trading on Michigan&#8217-s election day. You can see, on the Republican chart, Mitt Romney (in red) as the Comeback Kid &#8212-starting at 3:00PM EST (that&#8217-s 8:00 PM, British time, on the chart).

Rep Michigan BetFair

Dem Michigan BetFair

Here is the full, historical, compound chart that I already published:

Michigan BeFair

Is that the Michigan primary, really? Bizarre.There is something I don&#8217-t get. Compare with the InTrade charts.

Fat fingers at BetFair? Did they mess with the legend? Or is this compound chart about another primary? (Which one, then??) Bizarre, bizarre.



  1. It looks bad for the BetFair blog editor, who pasted that compound chart on top of professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams&#8217-s story. One week later, it is still impossible for me to comprehend what that compound chart is supposed to represent, and what it is doing on that page. Big mystery.
  2. It is a shame that the BetFair blog hasn&#8217-t published an update note stating that that compound chart was pasted there by the editor (behind prof LVW&#8217-s back) and explaining what the writer meant by &#8220-betting markets&#8221-. Still a puzzle.
  3. With all due respect to him, it looks bad on professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams for giving his writings to a corporate blog where the publisher and editor&#8217-s names are not listed anywhere, and whose overall content quality is feeble &#8212-to say the least.
  4. And, by the way, how come professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams&#8217-s posts are always excluded from the general BetFair blog feed? Is that a technical glitch? Or is it by design? Bizarre.
  5. The BetFair blog is not a serious publication. Period. I wonder whether I should link again to it, in the future. Probably not.


UPDATE: The BetFair blog has added a new label on the infamous compound chart&#8230-

Compound chart - BetFair blog fiasco


NEXT: Did the BetFair blog use trading data from InTrade to hint at BetFair&#8217-s accuracy??

The Michigan primary as seen thru the prism of the InTrade prediction markets

No Gravatar

Michigan, U.S.A. &#8212- Tuesday, January 15, 2008


The Democrats

The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100.

MI Dem Clinton

MI Dem Obama

MI Dem Edwards

MI Dem Field


The Republicans

The Mitt Romney event derivative was expired to 100.

MI Rep Romney

MI Rep McCain

MI Rep Giuliani

MI Rep Field

Source: InTrade