It is only today (February 19) that the New York Times emerges out of hibernation and headlines:
– Kansas Governor Seen as Top Choice in Health Post. —- Gov. Kathleen Sebelius is emerging as President Obama’s top choice for secretary of health and human services.
Now, look at the red line in the HubDub chart below: the prediction markets nailed her since the beginning of February 2009.
Of course, a scientific comparison would have scrutinized more closely than I did all the news articles from the New York Times (and from other mass media). That’-s what we are going to do with the “-Open Institute Of Prediction Markets“-. To this end, I will set up a portable and distributed “-Prediction Markets Consortium”- in the coming days. Then, I will try to anchor it in an institution of higher education, and, after that, I will try to gather support from think tanks and foundations. Not an easy task, but I know now that I can count on many prediction market people and companies. It should be an industry endeavor —-and it should deliver results, in the end (demonstrating the social utility of the prediction markets by documenting velocity, and, from there, following a logical thread which I will talk you about later on).
PS: About velocity…- Remember that we are about the prediction markets versus the mass media (The New York Times, The Times of London, NBC News, BBC News, etc.) —-as opposed to the vertical media (Politico.com, Nate Silver’-s blog, PoliticalBetting.com, etc.). The distinction is very important to keep in mind.
UPDATE: The only stuff I can find about Sebelius for HHS is that February 9 piece from the Associated Press (which didn’-t get a mass audience since it was not-republished in the New York Times or other mass media), saying that she was “-near the top”- for the job. Well, “-near the top”- is not like saying she was “-on top”-.
UPDATE #2: The Sebelius story is picking steam in the mass media. See Nate Silver’-s take.
ADDENDUM: Andrew Gelman tells me that he thinks that “-the Associated Press is a mass medium. It is a cooperative organized by a bunch of newspapers.”- I think that the AP news articles do indeed reach a big audience when they are re-published or cited in the mass media. But in the Sebelius case above, it was not the case.
Previously: The truth about prediction markets
Who will be the next nominee of the HHS, now that Daschle has withdrawn from consideration?
No HHS contract on InTrade, BetFair or NewsFutures.