Barack Obama + Joe Biden – THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there).

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“Friend &#8212- I have some important news that I want to make official. I’ve chosen Joe Biden to be my running mate.”

Some blogger says his wife is fantastic.

New York Times portrait of Joe Biden.

UPDATE: Barack Obama&#8217-s speech + Joe Biden&#8217-s speech

I think it is the worst pick ever. What a blunder. Joe Biden (a D.C. insider) is unpopular and gaffe prone. Plus, that choice shows that Barack Obama is insecure when it comes to foreign policy. An emphasis on the economy and, thus, on a successful gubernatorial experience would have been better.

Kathleen Sebelius was the one to pick. She is my vice president. (And Ron Paul is my president. :-D )

I have over-estimated the secretiveness of Barack Obama&#8217-s decision process. The chart above obviously shows that the Joe Biden narrative leaked out to reporters was beamed out for a purpose: testing the Obama-needs-a-VP-who-is-strong-in-foreign-policy argument, and letting the Press do the final vetting on gaffe-prone Joe Biden.

InTrade CEO John Delaney (along with the HubDub and BetFair people) will now brag on his marketing material that his prediction exchange did forecast Joe Biden as the Democratic vice president nominee.

What&#8217-s bad in all that (other than I have an egg on my face [*] ) is that we won&#8217-t have a public debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators, and how that conditions the accuracy of the prediction markets.

[*] I have an egg on my face, but Caveat Bettor has a whole omelet on his. :-D

2 thoughts on “Barack Obama + Joe Biden – THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there).

  1. Caveat Bettor said:

    Yes, I lost some dough on this VP trade.

    But I my faith in prediction markets has been vindicated.  Again.

  2. Medemi said:

    I’m not a huge fan of your leading indicator theory, Chris. But I also can’t see why one result should make you feel desperate about your beliefs. I get the impression your gut feeling is telling you you are missing something, even though you wish to remain stubborn. I can’t see why you would want to be, because as caveat bettor points out, there is more power within prediction markets if we can discard leading indicators.

    Personally, I find the market on the Eurovision Song Contest fascinating. The leading indicators suck, and the bookmakers pricing up the market have no other option but to follow the prediction market, which astonishingly is pretty accurate IMO. I KNOW, there are folks out there who do their homework. And they do it thoroughly.

    Should you want to try a different approach, let me offer a suggestion. To get you started :


    I haven’t read it myself (I really should), but nevertheless some quotes to warm you up :

    “Facilitated Learning and Creative Synchronicity. Sheldrake has conducted a number of experiments, which seem to indicate that morphic resonance and field effects may facilitate faster and easier learning by individuals and groups who attempt to learn a skill or behavior after an individual or group in the same species initially does so. “

    That’s another reason why we can’t have insiders spoiling our markets. For those who are interested in the truth, that is. (PMSL)

    This is an interesting line, regarding the working definition of “collective consciousness” :

    A mode of awareness, in which we directly experience, through an intuitive felt-sense, our union with the interconnected wholeness of life, and recognize ourselves in others. Our identity extends beyond our individual boundary and embraces the collective, through a free and conscious act of identification, rather than through definition by convention or external authority.

    Once this awareness develops, individuals – because they now perceive themselves as mutually interdependent parts of a larger whole — develop an authentic, abiding and primary concern and care for common good and for the well being, health and productive functioning of the communities to which they belong (including organizations and, eventually, the global community).”

    Well, it is Sunday.

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