Mitt Romney [or Sarah Palin] will be the Republican vice presidential nominee.

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Tim Pawlenty won&#8217-t go in Dayton, Ohio. So, it&#8217-s Mitt Romney.

The play-money and real-money prediction markets were easily fooled with the Pawlenty rumors, yesterday.

That vindicates my message that the VP prediction markets feed on unreliable primary indicators.

I said from day one to be careful with the VP prediction markets.

I told you so.

UPDATE: It&#8217-s probably Sarah Palin.

Tim… Who?

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Link to the InTrade prediction market.

Below, I try to hot-link to the chart, I&#8217-m not sure at this point it will work. We will see.

Tim Pawlenty

Tim Pawlenty