Mike Linksvayer *himself* is to blame for the non-liquidity of his Wikipedia prediction markets.

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Mike Linksvayer:

Prior to the Wikipedia community vote on adopting CC BY-SA it crossed my mind to set up several play money prediction market contracts concerning the above outcomes conditioned on Wikipedia adopting CC BY-SA by August 1, 2009, for which I did set up a contract. It is just as well that I didn’t — or rather if I had, I would have had to heavily promote all of the contracts in order to stimulate any play trading — the basic adoption contract at this point hasn’t budged from 56% since the vote results were announced, which means nobody is paying attention to the contract on Hubdub.

Blame yourself, Mike. I blogged 10 times about the concept of &#8220-X group&#8221- &#8212-the symbiosis between a set of prediction markets and a set of bloggers.


The Wikipedia community is voting on migration to a new (anti)-copyright license.

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As instructed by Mike Linksvayer at the Creative Commons foundation, I have just voted &#8220-YES&#8220-. Please, if you have done at least 25 edits on Wikipedia, go there and vote &#8220-YES&#8221-. Please, blog about your vote, and make sure all your friends go voting on this issue too.


Will Wikipedia adopt CC BY-SA by August 1, 2009?

The John Edwards Non-Affair gives us an opportunity to look deep into the caldron of the wisdom of crowds.

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As you all know, The National Enquirer (a supermarket tabloid which pays its informants and sometimes publishes false news) has it that John Edwards has a &#8220-love child&#8221- from one of his former assistants (all this while his wife is dying of cancer), and that the whole story is being covered up, big time.

Should the Wikipedia webpage on John Edwards mention that alleged scandal?

Well, the debate is raging inside Wikipedia.

The Wikipedia entry on prediction markets looks like a messy Marrakesh bazaar. – Shame on all members of the field of prediction markets -including the author of this present, finger-wagging post.

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The Wikipedia entry on prediction markets does not seem to be well maintained.

Here are the warnings that welcome visitors. The first of the 2 warnings has been up since November 2007 &#8212-that&#8217-s 7 months ago!!!!!!

And the definition opens on the big myth, create by IEM, and perpetuated by some scholars:

Prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions.

It&#8217-s a big myth.

The TradeSports and BetFair prediction markets were primarily created to satisfy the traders &#8212-their predictions come as an interesting offspring.

Justin Wolfers should have his own Wikipedia entry.

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Any Wikipedian out there willing to start off his page?


Robin Hanson, Tyler Cowen, Steve Levitt, and even Don Luskin and Robert Scoble, have their own Wikipedia entry. Why not Wolfers???&#8230- I realized that when I updated my &#8220-acknowledgments&#8221- page:


Friedrich August Von Hayek (an economist who introduced, among other things, the concept of the market as an information aggregation tool in The Use of Knowledge in Society, and the 1974 co-winner of the Nobel Prize in economics)-

– Professor Vernon Smith (an experimental economics pioneer, and, as such, the 2002 co-winner of the Nobel Prize in economics)-

– Professor Robin Hanson (one of the contemporary co-inventors of the prediction markets)-

– Doctor James Surowiecki (author of The Wisdom Of Crowds)-

– Professors Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz (meta analysts of the prediction markets)-

– Professor Steve Levitt (co-author of Freakonomics)-

– Professor Tyler Cowen (co-author of Marginal Revolution and author of Discover Your Inner Economist)-

Donald Luskin (author of The Conspiracy To Keep You Poor And Stupid)-

– The GNU, Linux, WordPress, World Wide Web Consortium, Mozilla, Opera, Yahoo!, Google, Wikipedia, Creative Commons and Free Software Foundation people (among others) for freeing our information-based society.

More Thanks

  • The Midas Oracle Blog Authors
  • Credits

APRIL FOOLS DAY: This year, again, CNET makes fun of the wisdom of crowds.

No GravatarCNET: Edit wars come to spy agencies&#8217- Intellipedia.


The full listing of all the April Fool&#8217-s Day jokes&#8230-

Previously: The 2007 CNET joke&#8230-

Previously: The 2008 Midas Oracle joke&#8230-

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Thanks to enterprise prediction markets, senior management can move faster to deal with problems or exploit opportunities.
  • NOTE TO SELF: Set up customized e-mail alerts for brand-new, hot Midas Oracle stuff.
  • DAYS OF RECKONING, PART TWO: Matt Drudge features the prediction markets. + Reuters has the right terminology (“traders”, “prediction exchanges”) but ignores BetFair.
  • DAYS OF RECKONING: The New York Times is telling the business world that enterprise prediction markets are an essential management tool.
  • HubDub will soon distribute a continuously-updating chart widget displaying the state of their prediction markets.