Questions to InTrade CEO John Delaney about InTrade .NET and InTrade .COM

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– InTrade .NET is a play-money prediction exchange while InTrade .COM is a real-money prediction exchange. Is there an automated market maker linking the InTrade .NET prices (or bids) with the InTrade .COM prices?

– Why is it that you ask the consumers of InTrade .NET to sign the terms of use of InTrade .COM, which mentions that: &#8220-2.2.4 You may lose money on Exchange trades.&#8221-? – [Thanks to Deep Throat for that remark.]

– InTrade .NET has a very good charting system. Will the same charting system be implemented at InTrade .COM whose charts are absolutely awful? (See this comparison between the InTrade .COM charts and the InTrade .COM v2 charts.) I insist to say that this should be a priority.

– Will InTrade .NET have chart widgets, just like InTrade .COM and InTrade .COM v2 both have?

– Will InTrade .NET have closed contracts (which are very useful in the accuracy discussions), just like InTrade .COM and InTrade .COM v2 both have?

– Finally, it is stated on the InTrade .COM frontpage (in a text promoting InTrade .NET) that:

When goes out of beta it will become the new default but the current version of will be retained indefinitely.

How should we understand that? Does this mean that you are going to merge your play-money and real-money prediction exchanges? (Might not be a bad idea provided that full information is given on each prediction market.)

UPDATE: Deep Throat tells me that their techies are testing their new user interface on InTrade .NET, which deals with with play money, and then if everything works out well, they may implement the same user interface on InTrade .COM, which deals with real money &#8212-while maintaining the legacy InTrade .COM on a dedicated server, for the nostalgic users.

The InTrade .NET charting system is a great improvement for prediction market journalism.

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One word: FANTASTIC.

Much improved.

  1. A prediction market blogger can hot-link to the advanced chart.
  2. The advanced chart is the by-default chart &#8212-both prices and volumes are chartered. [Thin volumes don’t appear, though.]
  3. The advanced chart is of the right width &#8212-not too small, not too big.

What remains to be improved:

  1. InTrade should publish chart widgets, so that the weblink to the prediction market webpage is automatically embedded in the chart.
  2. InTrade should publish expired charts of the closed prediction markets. Discussions about accuracy should be supported visually.
  3. InTrade should develop dynamic compound chart widgets with customizable news markers.

I hope we will get improvement on these fronts, soon.


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The image above is static &#8212-it&#8217-s a screen shot of the chart widget, not the chart widget itself. (I haven&#8217-t had access to their code, see, so I am not able to embed it here for you.) To view their updated widget, right-click on the image above, and open the link into a new browser tab.

  1. First time I see a big UK newspaper associates &#8220-BetFair&#8221- with the term &#8220-prediction markets&#8221-.
  2. Their explainer is quite acceptable.
  3. That is a great step for BetFair. Congrats.
  4. I&#8217-d explain things differently &#8212-and I dislike that they suggest that the prediction markets can greatly outperform the polls, described as not &#8220-accurate enough&#8221-. Pollsters do the best they can, it seems to me.
  5. The output that BetFair hands out and the journalists seek are probabilities (expressed in percentages) &#8212-not those damn decimal/digital odds.
  6. The chart widget they use is crappy. I already discussed it. It has usability problems with FireFox. It does not go into feeds. And it&#8217-s not readable enough. Look at the alternative, just below. (The only reason those idiots of journalists are using that crappy widget is that BetFair customized it for them, by putting their fucking newspaper trademark on top of the widget.)
  7. Anyway, the dead-tree, print newspapers are dying, and the future belongs to blog networks. :-D

The chart below is better&#8230- more readable&#8230- and it goes into feeds&#8230- – But those idiots at the Telegraph won&#8217-t show it to you because it is not pinned with the &#8220-Telegraph&#8221- trademark.

Please, BetFair, do give us the possibility to have a wider time period for the chart data.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.