Tag Archives: US elections

Nate Silver of FiveThirtYeight.com on “The Interview Show” —recorded November 5th, 2008

Posted on April 17, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com on “The Interview Show,” recorded November 5th, 2008: – - Nate Silver on November 3rd, 2008: – Nate Silver on August 21, 2008: -

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, FiveThirtYeight, fivethirtyeight.com, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Mark Bazer, models, Nate Silver, Politics, poll aggregation, polls, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, The Interview Show, US elections, US politics, US primaries | Leave a comment

2010 US congressional elections + The next UK general elections

Posted on March 15, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- 2010 US Elections – - – - UK Elections – Next General Election – Most Seats – Next UK Prime Minister – Winner of Next UK Election – Political Party – UK Conservatives – UK Labour -

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged BetFair, InTrade, prediction markets, UK elections, US elections | Leave a comment

State Polls vs. Prediction Markets — 2008 US Presidential Election Prediction

Posted on November 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Here are the latest (and last) state polls and prediction market probabilities. I am writing this post at 10:00 am —on Tuesday, November 4, 2008. – Contents a visual roundup of the prediction market probabilities for the 2008 US electoral … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, state polls, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

2008 US electoral map prediction for the 2008 US presidential elections

Posted on October 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Folks, – IMPORTANT NOTE: – Till Election Day, this present blog (Midas Oracle .ORG) is going to update you once in a while about the horse race thru the lens of the prediction markets. – Additionally, the other blog (Midas … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

Freakonomics is the latest in a long series of (usually, serious) bloggers who have misinformed the public by stating that the institutional investor is manipulating the US political election prediction markets.

Posted on October 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The anonymous blogger (probably the editor, Annika Mengisen) titles the post, “A New Kind of Campaign Advertising?”, and asks: Will market manipulation for political candidates become the norm as ever-wealthier campaigns try to control the news cycle? No…!!!… John Delaney … Continue reading →

Posted in Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Hedging & Insurance, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, Finance, Freakonomics, Hedging, InTrade, John Delaney, manipulations, market manipulations, New York Times, political hedging, political prediction markets, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, risk hedging, US elections, US politics | Leave a comment

The New York Times on InTrade’s US political election prediction markets

Posted on October 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The NYT writers discusses 2 (different?) issues. – #1. There was market arbitrage opportunies in the recent past between InTrade and BetFair —unlike 4 years ago, and contrary to the laws of economics. – The price of the Barack Obama … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, arbitrage, Barack Obama, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, bookmakers, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, Hedging, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, John McCain, manipulations, market arbitrage, market manipulations, political hedging, political prediction markets, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, risk hedging, US elections | 1 Comment

Economics blogger Zubin Jelveh got it right about the InTrade hedging thing.

Posted on October 19, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

“No Manipulation At InTrade“ Exactly. John Delaney said that that firm has been hedging on InTrade —a normal and beneficial activity on the other (larger and more liquid) financial markets. InTrade is not liquid enough to weather (quickly enough) the … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Hedging & Insurance, Prediction Journalism | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, Finance, Hedging, InTrade, John Delaney, manipulations, market manipulations, Odd Numbers, political hedging, political prediction markets, Portofolio, prediction market analysis, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, risk hedging, US elections, US politics, Zubin Jelveh | Leave a comment

Are recent historical charts now useless for short-term prediction market analysis because of the non-informational trades made by that institutional investor hedging its political risks on InTrade’s election prediction markets?

Posted on October 19, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

How can you assess the impact of Colin Powell’s endorsement of Barack Obama? You can’t.

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged Barack Obama, chart analysis, charts, Hedging, InTrade, non-informational trades, political hedging, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction markets, risk hedging, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections | 5 Comments

A blogger at the New York Times misinforms the public about the alleged manipulations on the InTrade US political prediction markets.

Posted on October 19, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The blogger titles the post, “Cheating the Spread”. No…!!!… John Delaney said that that firm has been hedging on InTrade —a normal and beneficial activity on the other (larger and more liquid) financial markets. InTrade is not liquid enough to … Continue reading →

Posted in Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Hedging & Insurance, Prediction Journalism | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, Finance, Hedging, InTrade, John Delaney, manipulations, market manipulations, New York Times, political hedging, political prediction markets, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, risk hedging, US elections, US politics | Leave a comment

InTrade offers an explanation of strange trading.

Posted on October 18, 2008 by Jason Ruspini

Intrade has made a statement on the unusual trading that many have noted and alleged to be manipulative. The statement suggests that the price action is mostly attributable to a single firm, a hedger “using our markets in good faith … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Hedging & Insurance, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Tagged Centrist Messenger, Finance, Hedging, InTrade, manipulationse, market manipulations, political hedging, political prediction markets, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, risk hedging, US elections | 25 Comments

Tag Archives: US elections

Nate Silver of FiveThirtYeight.com on “The Interview Show” —recorded November 5th, 2008

2010 US congressional elections + The next UK general elections

State Polls vs. Prediction Markets — 2008 US Presidential Election Prediction

2008 US electoral map prediction for the 2008 US presidential elections

Freakonomics is the latest in a long series of (usually, serious) bloggers who have misinformed the public by stating that the institutional investor is manipulating the US political election prediction markets.

The New York Times on InTrade’s US political election prediction markets

Economics blogger Zubin Jelveh got it right about the InTrade hedging thing.

Are recent historical charts now useless for short-term prediction market analysis because of the non-informational trades made by that institutional investor hedging its political risks on InTrade’s election prediction markets?

A blogger at the New York Times misinforms the public about the alleged manipulations on the InTrade US political prediction markets.

InTrade offers an explanation of strange trading.

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