Multi-millionaire, Republican, professor of economics Greg Mankiw uses Jason Ruspinis tax prediction markets at InTrade to assess the probability that a hypothetical John McCain presidency starting in 2009 assumes a raise in federal taxes.

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Via Marginal Revolution

P(tax hike / McCain) = 74%.

APPENDIX: Robin Hanson does not know yet who he is going to vote for, in November 2008&#8230- and feels that no scholar can help him.

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