“Friend —- I have some important news that I want to make official. I’ve chosen Joe Biden to be my running mate.”
Some blogger says his wife is fantastic.
New York Times portrait of Joe Biden.
UPDATE: Barack Obama’-s speech + Joe Biden’-s speech
I think it is the worst pick ever. What a blunder. Joe Biden (a D.C. insider) is unpopular and gaffe prone. Plus, that choice shows that Barack Obama is insecure when it comes to foreign policy. An emphasis on the economy and, thus, on a successful gubernatorial experience would have been better.
Kathleen Sebelius was the one to pick. She is my vice president. (And Ron Paul is my president. )
I have over-estimated the secretiveness of Barack Obama’-s decision process. The chart above obviously shows that the Joe Biden narrative leaked out to reporters was beamed out for a purpose: testing the Obama-needs-a-VP-who-is-strong-in-foreign-policy argument, and letting the Press do the final vetting on gaffe-prone Joe Biden.
InTrade CEO John Delaney (along with the HubDub and BetFair people) will now brag on his marketing material that his prediction exchange did forecast Joe Biden as the Democratic vice president nominee.
What’-s bad in all that (other than I have an egg on my face [*] ) is that we won’-t have a public debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators, and how that conditions the accuracy of the prediction markets.
[*] I have an egg on my face, but Caveat Bettor has a whole omelet on his.
According to Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Market, at Iowa University, futures markets need more hard information than they get in the veepstakes, to reliably predict a result.
Markets are very good at predicting elections, he says – but not choices being made inside Barack Obama’-s or John McCain’-s head.
Thank God for the BBC.
Thank God for the Iowa Electronic Markets.
Shame on John Delaney —-over 3 generations of Delaneys.
Other than Tom Snee (the IEM spin doctor), Chris Masse and Justin Wolfers are the only prediction market analysts to have sent out warnings about the VP-candidate prediction markets.
– Lawsuit about the ineligibility of Barack Obama for the US presidency. —- Not a hoax.
– Pranksters are sending false text messages. –- Did Caveat Bettor fall in this trap?
– Texas Rep. Chet Edwards is the surprise just out of the hat.
I don’-t have a link, as the Bloomberg tape just printed it at 12:15pm EST. Will update when available.
Unfortunately, Intrade was down, so I could not check where things were trading.
He who laughs last, right Chris?
UPDATE: Jack Tapper says there is a hoax email out there, which could be the basis for the Bloomberg article.
Cross-posted from Caveat Bettor.
QUESTION: One of the biggest moments in the campaign is going to be your announcement of a vice president. What is that decision going to tell voters about you?
BARACK OBAMA: Hopefully, the same thing that my campaign has told the American people about me. That I think through big decisions. I get a lot of input from a lot of people, and that ultimately, I try to surround myself with people who are about getting the job done, and who are not about ego, self—aggrandizement, getting their names in the press, but our focus on what’-s best for the American people.
I think people will see that I’-m not afraid to have folks around me who complement my strengths and who are independent. I’-m not a believer in a government of yes—men. I think one of the failures of the early Bush Administration was being surrounded by people who were unwilling to deliver bad news, or who were prone to simply feed the president information that confirmed his own preconceptions.
“-Not about ego”-…- is no good for Joe Biden.
“-Complement”-…-. is no good for Kathleen Sebelius and Tim Kaine.
So, it might be Evan Bayh.
UPDATE: Or Jack Reed.
As I explained in early June 2008, the VP speculations that appear in the Press should never be taken seriously. Most of them (and you don’-t know which ones) are a big orchestration of pure lies aimed at creating publicity, or wicked lies in the form of trial balloons. The aims of the political campaigns are to:
All that means that there are no good primary indicators for the prediction markets on the Democratic and Republican VP-candidate selections.
I want to offer 6 remarks:
NEXT: While InTrade CEO John Delaney is deceiving the journalists to sell his wares, Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Markets is telling them the truth: BEWARE THE VP-CANDIDATE PREDICTION MARKETS, THEY JUST AGGREGATE RUMORS.
New York Times publishes the portraits of all the VP candidates.
I have just read the article on Kathleen Sebelius…- and that has strongly reinforced my view that she is the best pick for Barack Obama.
I am less opinionated as for what should be the ideal Republican ticket. (Wait…- I want Ron Paul as VP candidate. )