Tag Archives: 2008 US elections

Nate Silver of FiveThirtYeight.com on “The Interview Show” —recorded November 5th, 2008

Posted on April 17, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com on “The Interview Show,” recorded November 5th, 2008: – - Nate Silver on November 3rd, 2008: – Nate Silver on August 21, 2008: -

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Prediction markets compute facts and expertise quicker that the mass media do.

Posted on January 21, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Political prediction markets react (with a small delay) to political polls —just like the political experts and the mass media do, too. Hence, in order to discover their true social utility, the prediction markets (which are tools of intelligence) should … Continue reading →

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Are prediction markets useful?

Posted on November 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

According to Alan Abramowitz, John Tierney has been “greatly exaggerating the accuracy of the betting markets.” “They follow the polls. That’s it.” – - My comment to Alan Abramowitz and John Tierney: “They follow the polls. That’s it.” Yes, they … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

On the question of the candidates’ qualifications to assume the presidency, 87 percent of the people polled said Joe Biden is qualified while only 42 percent said Sarah Palin is qualified.

Posted on October 3, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

CNN poll – - Technical Note: If you don’t see the right end of any of these huge static charts, do right-click on the image, and open the chart in another browser tab. Source: InTrade Technical Note: Our advice for … Continue reading →

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Yahoo! News finally links to InTrade —for legal reasons, not to InTrade .COM (their real-money prediction exchange), but to InTrade .NET (their play-money prediction exchange, which uses an AMM linked to InTrade .COM, without disclosing it to the public).

Posted on September 29, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- – InTrade .COM – InTrade .NET -

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Hubdub Election Map Released (Including Dynamic Widget)

Posted on September 24, 2008 by Nigel Eccles

We’ve just released our 2008 Presidential Election Map. The map is based on markets for all 50 states. In addition to the page there is a map widget (displayed above). The widget goes into feed readers and also dynamically updates … Continue reading →

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SpreadFair on the 2008 US electoral college

Posted on September 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse
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Andrew Gelman’s attempt to reduce the follow-the-polls frenzy by quantifying how much information about national and state swings is actually in pre-election polls

Posted on September 22, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Andrew Gelman’s post Andrew Gelman’s PDF file

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2008 US Elections Prediction: John McCain is now the favorite at InTrade, while all the other prediction exchanges still have Barack Obama ahead. Is InTrade quicker to incorporate the latest polls because of the bigger liquidity of its prediction markets?

Posted on September 11, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X … Continue reading →

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Intrade 2008.PRES.McCAIN > PRESIDENT.REP2008

Posted on September 11, 2008 by Mike Linksvayer

How frequent are arbitrage opportunities such as the following? In addition to title, the reverse is true of OBAMA/DEM. Do traders really think there’s some probability of McCain being elected as an idependent and Obama being replaced as the Democrat … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments