These prediction exchanges present prices as probabilities (expressed in percentages):
– HubDub
– InTrade .NET …- [*] …- would get the full point if they were to switch the label “-price”- for “-probability”- on their charts.
– NewsFutures …- gets half a point. No mention of “-probabilities”- on their charts.
– Inkling Markets …- gets a quarter of a point.
– TradeFair …- gets an honorable mention, but won’-t show its charts to the non-registered public.
[*] Which prefigures what InTrade .COM is going to be, soon, if I understood well my Deep Throat’-s tip.
As for the ultra innovative YooPick, is it yet another case of “-do what I say, not what I do“-?…-
Prediction markets: the future of decision-making – Companies are now making business decisions based on information employees provide via internal trading systems. – The Times of London – 2008-09-04
“-We use them [“them” = the enterprise prediction markets] as another point in the decision-making process, alongside asking experts and other business leaders,”- said Christina LaComb, a computer scientist in the R&-D lab at GE.
OK. You’-re using enterprise prediction markets- you’-ve gotten your name in the newspapers- you’-re “-cool”-.
And our good friend David Perry’-s gotten your money.
But do your event derivative traders have the same access as you do to “-experts”- and other “-business leaders”-?
Or do you leave them in the dark? In that case, your enterprise prediction markets would be clueless, useless, and worthless.
There was a bug in that chart which is now fixed. However the excess volatility is still there. The problem is that our early markets were created with a liquidity parameter which was too low. That is fixed with more recent markets. However we are also looking at modifying the MSR in some significant ways.
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Previously:
– the latest InTrade predictions
– Emile Servan-Schreiber’-s post on market arbitrage