Related Posts
- 2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: The 2008 US elections thru the prism of the prediction markets – 2008 US presidential and congressional elections – US President Prediction + US Congress Prediction – Barack Obama vs. John McCain
- 2008 US Elections Prediction: John McCain is now the favorite at InTrade, while all the other prediction exchanges still have Barack Obama ahead. Is InTrade quicker to incorporate the latest polls because of the bigger liquidity of its prediction markets?
- With regard to the 2008 US elections, both Justin Wolfers and Robin Hanson implied that BetFair is not as predictive as it should be.
I think Robin might be mis-diagnosing things. I think its just a matter of a lack of capital.
I think a surge of enthusiastic republicans came on Intrade after the conventions, while not trading on the other exchanges.
Looking at how trading has spiked on the other exchanges, I think that there most likely are a lot of “Buy Obama on intrade, short on [other exchange]“. But the amount of volume on intrade is huge, it would take a lot of capital to bring prices in line.
But eventualy, capital will build up to pick up all the free money.
I think Robin might be mis-diagnosing things. I think its just a matter of a lack of capital.
I think a surge of enthusiastic republicans came on Intrade after the conventions, while not trading on the other exchanges.
Looking at how trading has spiked on the other exchanges, I think that there most likely are a lot of “Buy Obama on intrade, short on [other exchange]“. But the amount of volume on intrade is huge, it would take a lot of capital to bring prices in line.
But eventualy, capital will build up to pick up all the free money.