The prediction exchanges that have fully embraced the prediction market approach

No Gravatar

These prediction exchanges present prices as probabilities (expressed in percentages):


– InTrade .NET &#8230- [*] &#8230- would get the full point if they were to switch the label &#8220-price&#8221- for &#8220-probability&#8221- on their charts.

– NewsFutures &#8230- gets half a point. No mention of &#8220-probabilities&#8221- on their charts.

– Inkling Markets &#8230- gets a quarter of a point.

– TradeFair &#8230- gets an honorable mention, but won&#8217-t show its charts to the non-registered public. :(

[*] Which prefigures what InTrade .COM is going to be, soon, if I understood well my Deep Throat&#8217-s tip.

As for the ultra innovative YooPick, is it yet another case of &#8220-do what I say, not what I do&#8220-?&#8230- :-D

APPENDIX: Lance Fortnow is PMA compatible:

UPDATE: See the comments&#8230-

Predict Olympic medal counts on YooPick.

No Gravatar

Cross posted from Oddhead Blog.

We&#8217-ve just added a new feature to Yoopick especially for Frenchmen Chris and Emile and citizens of nineteen other countries to place their swagor* on how many medals their country will win.

We&#8217-ve argued that the Yoopick interface is useful for predicting almost any kind of number, and since medal count is indeed a number, we thought we&#8217-d give it a try.

Besides, Lance told us it would be a good idea.

Sign up, play, enjoy, and don’t forget to tell us what you think!

Sharad Goel
David Pennock
Dan Reeves

* Scientific wild-ass guess, on record


Yoopick: Olympic medal count: Select

Make pick

Yoopick: Olympic medal count: France: Make pick


No Gravatar

If US laws were gambling compatible, would a FaceBook betting application solve the chicken-and-egg problem that any brand-new prediction exchange is facing? (Short sellers will come to the exchange only if there are enough backers, who will come only if there is enough liquidity, etc.) Could MySpace, FaceBook and LinkedIn (who have registered people by the millions, already) provide a starting launch for future prediction exchanges?

YooPick for FaceBook

YooPick @ FaceBook

PS: Yet another hit for Robin Hanson&#8217-s MSR. :-D