WORLDS MOST EXPERIENCED PREDICTION MARKET PRACTITIONER CASTS A DOUBT ON THE VALIDITY OF MSR, IN USE IN MOST PUBLIC PLAY-MONEY PREDICTION EXCHANGES AND IN MOST ENTERPRISE PREDICTION EXCHANGES.

No Gravatar

HOW TO DESTROY INTRADE, TRADESPORTS AND BETFAIR: a betting application for FaceBook

No Gravatar

If US laws were gambling compatible, would a FaceBook betting application solve the chicken-and-egg problem that any brand-new prediction exchange is facing? (Short sellers will come to the exchange only if there are enough backers, who will come only if there is enough liquidity, etc.) Could MySpace, FaceBook and LinkedIn (who have registered people by the millions, already) provide a starting launch for future prediction exchanges?

YooPick for FaceBook

YooPick @ FaceBook

PS: Yet another hit for Robin Hanson&#8217-s MSR. :-D

STRAIGHT FROM THE DOUBLESPEAK DEPARTMENT: NewsFutures CEO Emile Servan-Schreiber, well known to chase tirelessly the Infidels who dare calling prediction markets their damn polling system, is eager to sell the confusion to his clients and whomever would listen.

No Gravatar

Emile&#8217-s made up a phrase that means nothing (except in his fertile imagination), &#8220-a proprietary prediction market variant&#8220- &#8212-sounds like a red herring to me.

Unlike Consensus Point, Inkling Markets and Xpree, NewsFutures is the only prediction market software vendor not to have adopted Robin Hanson&#8217-s MSR &#8212-a simplified trading technology now in use in most enterprise prediction markets.