Link to the InTrade prediction market.
Below, I try to hot-link to the chart, I’-m not sure at this point it will work. We will see.
Tim Pawlenty
Tim… Who?
2
Yearly Archives: 2008
Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney (a.k.a. “-The Sponge”-) has siphoned the best concepts premiered by HubDub, and, in particular, has copied WORD FOR WORD some of the HubDub webpages.
Example: The 3 selling points of the InTrade .NET login/registration webpage are similar to those of HubDub.
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HubDub:
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InTrade. NET:
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John Delaney = The Sponge
Nigel Eccles = The Leader
The InTrade .NET charting system is a great improvement for prediction market journalism.
One word: FANTASTIC.
Much improved.
- A prediction market blogger can hot-link to the advanced chart.
- The advanced chart is the by-default chart —-both prices and volumes are chartered. [Thin volumes don’t appear, though.]
- The advanced chart is of the right width —-not too small, not too big.
What remains to be improved:
- InTrade should publish chart widgets, so that the weblink to the prediction market webpage is automatically embedded in the chart.
- InTrade should publish expired charts of the closed prediction markets. Discussions about accuracy should be supported visually.
- InTrade should develop dynamic compound chart widgets with customizable news markers.
I hope we will get improvement on these fronts, soon.
Quit mulling over the VP-choice prediction markets, todays real story is in the election winner markets.
I would suggest that the VP selections and the performance of the VP-choice markets at InTrade and elsewhere lend some validity to Chris Masse’-s views on such markets. But enough about the VP markets, already. The interesting developments are in the election-winner markets.
Since just after 2 PM Irish time, when the NEW.REP.VP.PALIN contract briefly fell into the 20s (rumors had it that Palin wasn’-t on a plane to Dayton- subsequently established that the rumor was not true), the contract turned sharply up to about 98 and stayed there until the selection was made official.
During that same time period, the “-Obama wins”- contract has slipped down a few percentages and the “-McCain wins”- contract is up a few percentages. Since at most VP selections are typically expected to affect final vote totals by 2 or 3 percent, the fact that the Obama and McCain contracts (which are winner-take-all, not vote-share contracts) have moved by 2 or 3 percent themselves suggests the markets think Palin is a fairly strong choice.
(But as I write this, the Obama contract is rallying back. Live blogging the prediction markets is hazardous stuff.)
UPDATE: As of Tuesday morning, both presidential markets have slid back to their pre-Palin-announcement levels, but active trading suggests continued disagreement about the information trickling into the market. Also interesting, activity has continued on the NEW-REP-VP-PALIN contract, with the price dipping below 95 (but back to 97 as I write). Since that contract expires at the convention – i.e. in a day or two – some folks are betting Palin will be off the ticket fast.
Mitt Romney [or Sarah Palin] will be the Republican vice presidential nominee.
Tim Pawlenty won’-t go in Dayton, Ohio. So, it’-s Mitt Romney.
The play-money and real-money prediction markets were easily fooled with the Pawlenty rumors, yesterday.
That vindicates my message that the VP prediction markets feed on unreliable primary indicators.
I said from day one to be careful with the VP prediction markets.
I told you so.
UPDATE: It’-s probably Sarah Palin.
InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, TradeFair, IEM, HubDub, NewsFutures, HSX = Bet Exchange Services
I like that term.
Sorry for the brievety of this post, and for the un-interestingness of the link.
InTrade DOT NET – www.intrade.net
This post is a very short review of their new website. I might publish a deeper review, later on.
The log line is that InTrade CEO John Delaney has ingested all the innovations that HubDub has brought to the prediction market scene since January 2007 (e.g., long and rich prediction market webpages that are indexed by the search engines, and use of social networking to boost trading) and has asked his technological team to clone those innovations for InTrade. This is great. I also appreciate that their charting system is satisfying. (The advanced charts seem to be of the right size, I have noticed. Neither too small, nor too big.)
On the negative side, the execution is not as good as it should be —-and I’-m polite. But to be fair with them, they say their website is still in “-beta”- —-so let’-s give them time to improve their work.
Overall, it’-s a good move, and it shows, as I have said for months, that Nigel Eccles of HubDub is having a profound impact on the prediction market industry.
UPDATE: I forgot to mention that InTrade.net presents probabilities expressed in percentage, not prices, which they also took from HubDub.
Midas Oracle wants you to set your screen resolution very high.
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- Set the screen resolution of your PC at 1600 x 1200 pixels or more.
- You will probably have to augment the size of the font(s) used by your browser and your other software.
That way, you will have more things on your screen.
And you will enjoy our extended horizontal menu bar, present on top of every Midas Oracle webpage. More menu choices means more opportunities for the web visitors to discover the prediction markets. 
Which is good for all the prediction market people and organizations listed on those webpages.
PREDICTION MARKETS IS SUGGESTION #2 AT GOOGLE WEB SEARCH FOR THE PREDICTION QUERY.
Technical Note: I was logged in, but I got the same results when I was not logged in.
INTRADE-TRADESPORTS CEO JOHN DELANEY CENSORS CNBC ON YOUTUBE.
– HE CENSORS THE END OF THE FIRST CNBC VIDEO SEGMENT TO FIT HIS MARKETING AGENDA.
– HE ORDERS THAT THE SECOND CNBC VIDEO SEGMENT NOT TO BE UPLOADED ON YOUTUBE.
THE PROOF OF THE CENSORSHIP:
YouTube video (whose last part was censored by InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney – PRECISION: the discussion between the journalists and the guest on the TV set was suppressed)
PLEASE, SOMEBODY, DO UPLOAD THE FULL VIDEO SEGMENT ON YOUTUBE, UNCENSORED, AND HIT ME WITH ITS URL. I’-LL RE-EMBED IT FOR EVERYONE TO SEE. THERE IS NO CENSORSHIP ON MIDAS ORACLE. WE ARE NEITHER IN CHINA NOR IN IRELAND. WE ARE FREE WORLD’-S CITIZENS. WE WANT TO SEE THE NAKED TRUTH, NOT DOCTORED TAPES.
The second CNBC video segment that TradeSports-InTrade CEO John Delaney does not want you to see on YouTube
APPENDIX: CNBC video + CNBC video #2
APPENDIX: THE ULTIMATE THING THAT TRADESPORTS-INTRADE CEO JOHN DELANEY WANTED TO CENSOR BUT COULDN’-T THANKS TO MIDAS ORACLE.