Yearly Archives: 2008

Predictify gets the X Groups concept right.

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#1. X Groups

Predictify is unveiling a two-way interaction between their prediction platform and the blogs out there.

  1. FROM THE BLOGS TO PREDICTIFY: Number one, there is now a customized prediction widget that bloggers can embed in their blog posts so that their readers can vote within each blog post &#8212-without leaving the blog.
  2. FROM PREDICTIFY TO THE BLOGS: Number two, there is now a trackback widget that bloggers can embed in their blog posts so that the blog readers can click and be connected to relevant questions on Predictify, based on the content in that particular post. As soon as one of the blog readers clicks a highlighted question, that question will have (on the Predicitif webpage) a trackback to the blog post &#8212-theoretically pulling traffic from Predictify to that blog. The first problem with this second feature is that only the most popular trackback will be published on the particular Predictify webpage, as I understand it. I don&#8217-t see how bloggers could be interested if there is no guarantee that their trackback will actually appear. The second problem is that we don&#8217-t know whether Predictify abides by the &#8220-do follow&#8221- policy, which is a way for a website to injects Google PageRank juice to the website it links to. (The opposite policy is called &#8220-no follow&#8221-.) Only the &#8220-do follow&#8221- approach would get bloggers interested in that scheme. Predictify should clarify that.
  3. UPDATE: All the trackbacks will appear. They will be sorted by popularity. And, yes, Predictify has a &#8220-do follow&#8221- policy. :-D

#2: Social Networking

I&#8217-m told that Predictify will soon unveil a FaceBook application. We will see whether it&#8217-s Predictify working on FaceBook or Predictify woking with FaceBook. See the difference? (YooPick works on FaceBook, not with FaceBook.)

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How do InTrades prediction markets work, and are they really accurate?

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Thanks to the InTrade person who uploaded the first CNBC segment on YouTube, and fixed the initial technical problem.

I renew my asking for the second CNBC segment to be uploaded at YouTube, too. [If someone else than InTrade does it, please hit me with the YouTube URL. Thanks.]

My analysis:

  1. InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney does a good job explaining the mechanism of the wisdom of crowds.
  2. They cut professor Justin Wolfers too short. It&#8217-s a nuclear disaster &#8212-once again. Justin Wolfers is an admirable and ultra friendly person, a great prediction market researcher, a good prediction market analyst, and a wonderful blogger, but his TV appearances are, so far, totally crappy. The guy needs to hire a publicist who will teach him to flatten his Australian accent and to talk straight and plain &#8212-to go to the point real quick.
  3. &#8220-It seems like someone at CNBC decided at some point that they would NEVER address the legality issue.&#8221- – Dixit Deep Throat.
  4. After the broadcast of the video shot in Ireland, the camera goes back to the TV set, and, at this point, the comments from the journalists and the guest (Steve Forbes) show that they still don&#8217-t understand fully the prediction markets. They don&#8217-t have the right facts, and their analysis is not crystal clear.
  5. Overall, a good explainer on the prediction markets &#8212-taken into account that CNBC is an entertainment media. For deeper explainers, see the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, or Midas Oracle.

YouTube video (the last part was censored by InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney – PRECISION: the discussion between the journalists and the guest on the TV set was suppressed)

APPENDIX: CNBC video + CNBC video #2

UPDATE: The second CNBC video segment that TradeSports-InTrade CEO John Delaney does not want you to see on YouTube

We are now 100 members of the Prediction Markets group at LinkedIn, and that includes InTrade CEO John Delaney and many other prediction market luminaries (scholars like Eric Zitzewitz or David Pennock and practitioners like Nigel Eccles, David Perry or Adam Siegel). So, when Robin Hanson emerges ou

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–

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Join us today.

Don&#8217-t forget to tell LinkedIn to show the groups you belong to on your profile &#8212-that&#8217-s the damn purpose (to get the web visitors to navigate from one profile to another from within the prediction market community).

By default, the groups are not visible on your profile. YOU HAVE TO CHANGE THAT OPTION. Do it now. Hurry up. (What? It&#8217-s not done, already? What are you waiting for?)

Now that Joe Biden is the Democratic vice president nominee, what to think of Justin Wolfers August 1st column for the WSJ?

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– The good point is that he dealt well with the fact that the VP prediction markets fed on primary indicators that are less reliable than the ones used for the political elections.

– The bad point is that, at the time he wrote up his column, Virginia governor Tim Kaine was the favorite of the InTrade VP prediction markets. The others were, in decreasing order, Evan Bayth, Kathleen Sebelius, and then&#8230- Joe Biden. So, the critic reading his column today could say that the prediction markets are oversold to a gullible public and that a prediction market bubble ready to pop up is forming under our very nose.

– Now, we know that Barack Obama made his decision while vacationing in Hawaii (less than 2 weeks ago). That&#8217-s only from that date that the VP prediction markets started generating probabilistic predictions worth quoting. The trick is that Justin Wolfers (and the other prediction market analysts) didn&#8217-t know that, on August 1st. (PDF file)

– I don&#8217-t regret my decision not to publish about the VP prediction markets. I&#8217-d look like an idiot today.

It seems like someone at CNBC decided at some point that they would NEVER address the legality issue.

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Signed: Deep Throat.

APPENDIX: CNBC video + CNBC video #2

UPDATE: YouTube video (the last part was censored by InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney – PRECISION: the discussion between the journalists and the guest on the TV set was suppressed)

UPDATE: The second CNBC video segment that TradeSports-InTrade CEO John Delaney does not want you to see on YouTube

WeatherBill C.E.O. David Friedberg hopes to persuade [!?] the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (C.F.T.C.) to change the requirement that currently limits weather derivative traders to accredited investors with a minimum net worth of $1 million.

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Hummmmmmmmm&#8230- Quite a bold ambition. I&#8217-m very surprised by his statement. Is he naive?

Via our chief economist Michael Giberson.

CNBC airs an upbeat explainer about InTrades prediction markets.

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Via our good friend Jason Ruspini.

CNBC video + CNBC video #2

– Please, put that on YouTube, and then give me the YouTube URL. I&#8217-ll embed the video in another post.

– Who is that guy that they will interview later on, Jason??? [UPDATE: Serge Ravitch]

My observations:

  1. Quite upbeat. Almost an advertisement for InTrade.
  2. No mention whatsoever that InTrade is illegal in America.
  3. On the website, they call InTrade a &#8220-political futures market&#8221-.
  4. The InTrade critic was Barry Ritholtz. They just showed his blog. He wrote that the trading on InTrade is &#8220-pitifully&#8221- small.
  5. The first prediction market analyst they want to hear is InTrade CEO John Delaney. The second is professor Justin Wolfers. And that&#8217-s all.
  6. Steve Forbes asked whether &#8220-this thing&#8221- (InTrade) predicted Joe Biden &#8220-weeks ago&#8221-. The answer is that InTrade predicted Joe Biden some days ago.
  7. Joe Kerner put an emphasis on liquidity, whereas the emphasis should have been on the market as the mechanism that delivers a collective verdict.

UPDATE: YouTube video (the last part was censored by InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney – PRECISION: the discussion between the journalists and the guest on the TV set was suppressed)

UPDATE: The second CNBC video segment that TradeSports-InTrade CEO John Delaney does not want you to see on YouTube