Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: traders

Algorithms that execute thousands of trades per second

Automated transactions executed at lightning speed

Tobin Tax = a tax on financial transactions

Sounds like Jason Ruspini shouldn’t lose sleep over it —it won’t happen:

Previously:
- Paul Krugman Tries to Foist Specious Argument in Tobin Tax Debate.
- Jason Ruspini is against the Tobin Tax.

BetFair value the losing bettors.

We are now in possession of the chat transcript they had on August 10th, 2009. BetFair’s weapon of deterrence (“You must be logged in to view Forum posts and replies”) did not deter us from our goal —getting to know the truth about prediction markets, and propagating it on the Internet.
So, here we go. There [...]

How do traders like (or dislike) the new Hollywood Stock Exchange?

Hollywood Stock Exchange
Don’t expect Alex Kirtland to ask the tough and harsh questions, of course. (Our good friend Alex sells web usability services. His goal is to make friends.)
The main bit of criticism seems to be that the new website is too slow. That is addressable.

Morons and Non-Morons — Sheep and Wolves

Required reading for “Wiser Than The Crowd”, who mis-understood one of my previous posts (kids, today):
Morons and non-morons, which I often call sheep and wolves, are not distributed independently across topics. The wolves are consistently attracted to the sheep, and the net effect of having more wolves and more sheep is to have more accurate [...]

Sheep and Wolves

My post re-publishing the InTrade check received by Wiser Than The Crowd has been mis-interpreted by him. There was nothing about “hating the game” in my post. It was just a reference to the “sheep and wolves” concept floated by Robin Hanson. (See also the Iowa Electronic Markets research on their traders.)
Go reading more research [...]

There are not enough big active traders on InTrade.

Wiser Than The Crowd:
[...] Based on my Intrade blog, the Intrade forum, and emails and PMs I’ve received, I’d estimate the number of sharp traders with more than $10,000 to trade is in the single digits. Many of them have different specialties (entertainment, financials, politics, etc.) and don’t compete with one another.
Fundamentally, in order to [...]

Free Prediction Market Data — Trading Fees

If you think of it, the business model of BetFair and InTrade should be to deliver free prediction market data to the world, while leveraging trading fees on the bettors. Agree?

InTrade are asking its 700 most active traders to help them improve InTrade.

InTrade are asking its 700 most active traders to help them improve InTrade.

Smarkets want to attract bettors that are (allegedly) scared to death by BetFair’s complexity.

Smarkets TechCrunch Geek’n Rolla Pitch from Smarkets on Vimeo.
Download this post to see the embedded video above —if your feed reader doesn’t show it to you.
Smarkets – Blog post

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