Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: play-money prediction markets

New NewsFutures prediction exchange in France

http://predipol.newsfutures.com/ — play-money
And Today’s Le Figaro features prediction markets, Emile tells me…
«Du coup, assure Émile Servan-Schreiber, on ne lit plus les articles de la même manière, un peu comme un analyste financier qui traque l’info pour ensuite s’en servir dans ses recommandations d’investissement.»

BetFair.net

BetFair.net
Play-money prediction markets

The Iowa Health Prediction Market is usable for the probability seekers.

Iowa Health Prediction Market
Swine Influenza Prediction Markets
I like how they use icons, and the way they display probabilities on that page. It is clear, and we can get the info real quick.
Emile tells me that IHPM was developed with NewsFutures source code, but customized by them.

PredictMarkets

PredictMarkets
A play-money prediction exchange in New Zealand —a fertile ground for prediction markets, it seems.

American Civics Exchange = CFTC-regulated Exempt Board of Trade

American Civics Exchange is enabling what InTrade (circa 2006, when they applied for the eBOT status) couldn’t… —getting the CFTC stamp of approval, and running a real-money prediction exchange from within the US territory (as opposed to offshore). The ACE does not have any direct domestic competitor, right now, but HedgeStreet could enter the political [...]

At the contrary, mister Kirtland.

Contra Alex Kirtland, I believe that the development of play-money prediction exchanges using MSR (like HubDub or AskMarkets), which popularity is now proved, is much more important news than stuff about CFTC-regulated, real-money prediction exchanges (like HedgeStreet or the Cantor Exchange), which popularity is uncertain.
Inkling Markets, HubDub and AskMarkets have been techcrunched —that has not [...]

The HSX bozos, who briefly experimented with a website “redesign”, have now reverted to their original platform.

Towards the end of October, I chronicled, in very harsh words, the so-called “redesign” of the Hollywood Stock Exchange website. I wrote that the HSX executives who gave the green light to that “redesign” are a bunch of usability bozos, who should be sent flipping burgers on Main Street, instead of running a prediction exchange.
My [...]

State Polls vs. Prediction Markets — 2008 US Presidential Election Prediction

Here are the latest (and last) state polls and prediction market probabilities.
I am writing this post at 10:00 am —on Tuesday, November 4, 2008.
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Contents

a visual roundup of the prediction market probabilities for the 2008 US electoral college
the latest news about the race for the White House
a visual roundup of various electoral maps based on state [...]

The automated market maker of InTrade’s play-money prediction markets

Michael Schmahl:
I think I have a guess as to how the play-money bot at Intrade works.
Here are the order books for today at 2:48AM (2008-10-27) for NTH.DAKOTA.DEM on intrade.com and play.intrade.com:
intrade.com [...]

Why would an event derivative trader inform his/her fellow traders about pieces of information that give clues about the future outcome of an event that they all bet on?

- Why did Jenni Peterson give clues to her competitors?
- Why didn’t she keep the information (see comments #6 and #7) close to her chest instead?
- Do the traders who use play money are more talkative than the traders who use real money?
- Shouldn’t an event derivative trader beam out false signals instead of helping [...]

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