Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: David Perry

Is General Electric Imagination Market a joke?

Emile Servan-Schreiber bends David Perry’s ear.
Emile Servan-Schreiber (of NewsFutures):
From: Emile Servan-Schreiber
Date: Mon, 15 Jun 2009 22:45:43 +0200
Subject: Re: GE Imagination Market License
That’s pretty funny, considering that the creator of the GE Imagination Market herself concludes in several published papers that “using markets to rank ideas may be no better than other methods of idea ranking,” [...]

Linda Rebrovick + Brad Wilson + Robin Hanson + Ken Kittlitz + David Perry = Consensus Point

Enterprise Prediction Markets = The wisdom of crowds comes to the enterprise.

Here are short excerpts of the Forrester report on enterprise prediction markets and companies that provide software for enterprise prediction markets.
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The Forrester executive summary:
The “wisdom of crowds” is capturing the attention of corporate strategists across the globe, and, as a result, many are now looking to prediction markets — speculative markets in which traders collectively [...]

Who is the Steve Jobs of the prediction market industry?

The award goes to… the envelope, please…
Nigel Eccles.
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John Delaney and Emile Servan-Schreiber are good, but they are too much ignorant of information technology.
Adam Siegel and David Perry are too much focused on their internal process.
BetFair seems to be a consensual machine. It’s not a place for heroes.
David Pennock is an admirable man and a great [...]

Google PageRank of the main Prediction Market Consultants

Inking Markets and NewsFutures are graded 6 / 10.
Consensus Point and Xpree are graded 5 / 10.

The best presentations from the world’s best conference on enterprise prediction markets —ever

Awesome slides in bold.
Brought to you by Koleman Strumpf (circa November 2007):
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Henry Berg, Microsoft <slides>
Discussant: Robin Hanson (George Mason Department of Economics) <slides>
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Christina Ann LaComb, GE (The Imagination Market; abstract is free, text is gated) <slides>
Discussant: Marco Ottaviani (Kellogg School of Management, Management and Strategy) <slides>
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Dawn Keller, Best Buy (Best Buy’s TAGTRADE Market) <slides>
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Bo [...]

Where to find advice on how to set up your enterprise prediction markets

Consultants
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Inkling – URL: Inkling Markets – (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)

Adam Siegel — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Nathan Kontny

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NewsFutures – (Maryland, U.S.A. & Paris, France, E.U.)

Emile Servan-Schreiber — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Maurice Balick

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Xpree – (U.S.A.)

Mat Fogarty — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

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HP Services – HP Labs – (U.S.A.)

Predicting the future –with games — Introductory article
Information Dynamics [...]

The Most Important Discussion On Marketing I Followed This Early Morning

Michael Giberson and Robin Hanson are fond of Inkling Markets’ Godfather, Paul Graham. I am not. I am more interested in Robert Scoble, Loic Le Meur, and Jason Calacanis. With other bloggers, they started a discussion on modern-days public relations.
Here are the good points they made, along with my associated thoughts:
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Loic Le Meur:

A very good [...]

Inkling Markets’ GodFather Speaks Out.

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Taking his propos and applying them to Adam Siegel and Nate Kontny, you’d get that:

The key is Adam Siegel and Nate Kontny’s determination. They refuse to fail.
The key for Nate Kontny was to find out a good co-founder —that was Adam Siegel.
[M]arket is the biggest determinant in the outcome of successful startups. [...] Smart people [...]

Enterprise Prediction Markets: Co-Creating An Organization’s Future

Prediction Markets: Co-Creating An Organization’s Future – (PDF file) – by Inside Knowledge Magazine’s Victoria Axelrod and Jenny Ambrozek – 2008-05-10
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David Perry of Consensus Point:
Yes, markets are early warning systems for many things, they give you a sense of what your people know and do not know.
Prediction markets are not necessary if everyone has perfect [...]

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