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Chris F. Masse August 4th, 2008

Inking Markets and NewsFutures are graded 6 / 10.

Consensus Point and Xpree are graded 5 / 10.

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My great friend David Perry of Consensus Point is making a strategic mistake by insisting on discretion and secrecy.

I told him 10 times.

To no avail.

Pissing in a violin in order to create a symphony would have been more fruitful.

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PageRank is important.

One day, we will learn in the Wall Street Journal that a Fortune-500 CEO is fired by the board for a low PageRank.

That will happen one day; you will see.

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The Prediction Market Consultants

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Tags: Consensus Point, consultants, consulting firms, David Perry, event derivative markets, Google PageRank, inkling markets, NewsFutures, PageRank, prediction market consultants, Prediction Market Software, prediction markets, Xpree

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Chris F. Masse June 10th, 2008

Awesome slides in bold.

Brought to you by Koleman Strumpf (circa November 2007):

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Henry Berg, Microsoft <slides>
Discussant: Robin Hanson (George Mason Department of Economics) <slides>
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Christina Ann LaComb, GE (The Imagination Market; abstract is free, text is gated) <slides>
Discussant: Marco Ottaviani (Kellogg School of Management, Management and Strategy) <slides>
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Dawn Keller, Best Buy (Best Buy’s TAGTRADE Market) <slides>
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Bo Cowgill, Google (Putting Crowd Wisdom to Work) <slides>
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Jim Lavoie, Co-Founder and CEO, Rite-Solutions <slides>
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David Perry, Co-Founder and President, Consensus Point <slides>
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Mat Fogarty, Founder and CEO, Xpree Inc <slides>

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Tom W. Bell, Chapman University School of Law <slides>

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Tags: Best Buy, Bo Cowgill, Christina Ann LaComb, Consensus Point, corporate prediction markets, David Perry, Dawn Keller, enterprise prediction markets, GE, General Electric, Google, Henry Berg, internal prediction markets, Jim Lavoie, Koleman Strumpf, Marco Ottaviani, Market Scoring Rules, Mat Fogarty, Microsoft, MSR, private prediction markets, Rite-Solutions, Robin Hanson, Xpree

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Chris F. Masse May 23rd, 2008

David Perry (of Consensus Point) has just clinched a deal.

I have told you many times that David Perry is a very gifted salesperson and business executive. Under-rate him at your own risk.

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UPDATE: I’m told it’s a nano deal.

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Tags: Consensus Point, corporate prediction markets, David Perry, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, internal prediction markets, Mohr Collaborative, prediction markets, private prediction markets

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Chris F. Masse April 24th, 2008

I’ve heard great strategic news from Consensus Point. They are doing great.
We will hear from them in the coming weeks.
Developing…
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Tags: Consensus Point, David Perry

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Chris F. Masse April 18th, 2008

Emile’s made up a phrase that means nothing (except in his fertile imagination), “a proprietary prediction market variant“ —sounds like a red herring to me.

Unlike Consensus Point, Inkling Markets and Xpree, NewsFutures is the only prediction market software vendor not to have adopted Robin Hanson’s MSR —a simplified trading technology now in use in most enterprise prediction markets.

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Tags: Consensus Point, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, Inkling, inkling markets, internal prediction markets, market scoring rule, MSR, NewsFutures, prediction markets, private prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Xpree

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Chris F. Masse March 26th, 2008

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Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google - (PDF file - PDF file) - by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitwewitz - 2008-01-06

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Bo Cowgill:

[...] Trade-by-trade data can reveal characteristics of specific working groups: What they know, how they feel, how they process and share information and how all of that changes over time. I didn’t try to put any of this in the paper because the conclusions would be sensitive, and I thought this application was pretty obvious to anybody who understood our methodology. [...]

Bo Cowgill:

I’ve also heard that other companies would find it impossible to analyze the interaction between their market and the organization. Why? Lack of data. [...]

Bo Cowgill:

Some more remarks about applications that combine prediction markets and organizational data (org charts, social networks, seating locations). The obstacle to these applications is not a lack of data. Jed mentions privacy concerns — and if he thinks this is a big obstacle then I’d be interested in discussing his thoughts.

A bigger problem is that that current prediction market vendors and consultants cannot support these applications. At heart, these vendors are software engineers and salespeople at heart, not statisticians or data miners. They want to write one system that can support lots of clients. At conferences, one hears PM vendors complain about having to do “customization” work for clients.

This approach would not work for the applications I describe for two reasons:

1. The inputs for different clients won’t be the same. Each client’s organizational data will likely take a different structure. This makes it difficult for prediction market vendors to architect a single system that can served many clients (yet another challenge with integrating markets with other corporate IT services).
2. The outputs for different clients won’t be the same. The business relevance and statistical power of each analysis will differ with each client’s data.

Prediction market vendors may also need to familiarize themselves with the statistical learning methods necessary to fully utilize these rich datasets. So what’s the solution? First, move to a software-and-consulting model. By ‘consulting,’ I don’t mean ‘consulting on how to implement the market.’ I’m talking about helping the client solve its problem using a variety of data, including prediction market data.

Second, the vendors also need to pitch prediction markets as more than a forecasting tool. People in the business world commonly identify as data junkies — probably more so than they identify with the ‘wisdom of crowds’ ethos. It is unclear how much companies really care about accurate forecasting anyway.

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On a related note, there is something that only the prediction market software vendors could do, at this time, for those who are in capacity to do so: setting up inter-industry prediction markets —or at least, handing over (with everybody’s agreement) anonymized prediction market data on industry topics to anyone else in the industry who is a client of that PM firm. I don’t know about NewsFutures or Inkling Markets, but if you look at Consensus Point’s list of clients, you’ll see that David Perry’s firm is strong in the (consumer) electronic industry —Motorola, Qualcomm, Siemens, Nokia. Use your imagination, or ask David Perry directly, for more… (I can’t talk; otherwise, next thing, I’m a dead blogger.)…

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Tags: Bo Cowgill, Consensus Point, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Zitwewitz, event derivative markets, Google, Google's enterprise prediction markets, Inkling, inkling markets, internal prediction markets, Justin Wolfers, NewsFutures, prediction market consultants, prediction market software vendors, prediction markets, private prediction markets

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Chris F. Masse February 4th, 2008

I’m free to talk, now.

The Industry Standard is powered by Consensus Point.

The New York Times don’t print that, but they print that MIT CCI’s Thomas Malone (branded in the piece as a prediction market evangelizer) has been advising The Industry Standard.

I spotted dozens of news articles on the Industry Standard’s re-launching. Their spin doctor did a good job.

By the way, speaking of media-managed prediction exchanges, the CNN prediction exchange has some prediction markets with each a total of transactions in the magnitude of 50,000. That’s awesome. Congrats to Inkling Markets. Mike Giberson (who has become an expert in MSR trading) is one of the traders, probably…

Tags: CNN, CNN Political Market, Consensus Point, Inkling, inkling markets, The Industry Standard, Thomas Malone

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Chris F. Masse January 8th, 2008

Why is HSX the Planet Earth’s most popular play-money prediction exchange? –> Because Max Keiser went on TV each week pitching HSX, in the late 90s.

CNN prediction exchange –> pitched on CNN TV, soon = good thing

CNBC prediction exchange –> pitched on CNBC TV, soon = good thing

Now what the industry needs is… a prediction market TV show.

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Related Thought: As I said to a journalo today, I’m rooting for NewsFutures when it comes to software for CDA, play-money prediction markets. And I said that the PopSci PPX media team did the best work when it comes to managing an prediction exchange. Outstanding work. Fuck, NewsFutures and PopSci PPX should have worked together. EJSS’s rear end should be kicked, commercially speaking. He should learn to sell.

(Mike Giberson will say he prefers Inkling Markets. )

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UPDATE: Max Keiser (the co-founder of HSX) comments…

The reason HSX is the most successful is due to my design that integrates a virtual currency, virtual securities and a virtual specialist tech. (patented; the only patent in the industry). Anything that came before HSX are basically electronic betting pools and everything that came after is a pale wannabe. Yes, I also did a lot of television but the key is the design itself. It’s a highly satisfying experience for traders despite the fact that HSX was dumbed down in 1998 to appease VC’s who thought it should be more like a ‘game.’ As far as a PM-based TV show… Watch this space. I should have some news on that front by the first week of Feb.

Tags: CNBC, CNN, CNN Political Market, Consensus Point, event derivative markets, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HSX, Inkling, inkling markets, Max Keiser, NewsFutures, PopSci PPX, prediction markets, TV

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Chris F. Masse January 7th, 2008

Douglas W. Hubbard is an “expert in the field of IT value“. He is “the inventor of Applied Information Economics“. If you know what the hell that means in plain English, give me a ring.

Best wishes to David Perry and Ken Kittlitz —and to their competitors (NewsFutures, Inkling Markets, Xpree, etc.) as well ( ).

Tags: Applied Information Economics, Consensus Point, Douglas Hubbard, Douglas W. Hubbard, Hubbard Decision Research

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Chris F. Masse November 5th, 2007

Koleman Strumpf:

1. David Perry (Consensus Point)

Perry shared many lessons learned, and chose to focus people’s attention on the pitfalls of PMs (in addition to their power).

1. Implementation can take a long time. It’s a change management process.
2. Asking the wrong questions can be a killer, but often the right questions emerge after trading begins.
3. Poor incentive structures is the #1 killer, according to Perry.
4. Don’t suppress the reputational incentives associated with PMs.
5. Be explicit and transparent about how traders will be compensated.

2. Dawn Keller (Best Buy)

Keller began her remarks by explaining how Best Buy management wants to become better at listening. There is an authentic passion for tapping into the best information available among the vast network of Best Buy personnel.

PM offer a powerful tool in this regard. PM fits with the Best Buy mantra of: “Have fun while being the best.”

Keller framed her remarks around how management has tried to educate the Best Buy workforce about PM and the evolution of PM implementation from a committed band of volunteers to senior management buy-in. Best Buy has opted for a “shot gun” approach rather than a “rifle shot” approach. Best Buy tends to run many parallel markets at once to see what sticks rather than trying a few targeted pilots. Consistent with many other speakers, Best Buy runs many non-business related markets to invoke interest and fun, noting that participation is key and must be continually cultivated.

3. Christina LaComb (General Electric)

LaComb set the stage for her comments by noting GE managements desire to implement reliable intelligence aggregation processes. PM offers one such technology.

GE management, to date, has had little interest in the forecasting applications of PM. Rather, they [want] methods for grappling with new technologies and other factors associated with disruptive change. So, in the GE setting PM takes on the nature of “preference markets” rather than “prediction markets.”

LaComb went on to describe lessons learned in the implementation of GE preference markets. Much of this information is available in a published case study.

LaComb stressed that: “Validation is a huge challenge.” To date, the validation most relevant in the GE environment has been “gut checks” from senior management.

Can prediction markets “grapple” with disruptive change, really? I view this forecasting tool as conformist, whereas inventions/innovations require a dose of anti-conformism.

Tags: Best Buy, Consensus Point, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, General Electric, internal prediction markets, private prediction markets

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