2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: The 2008 US elections thru the prism of the prediction markets – 2008 US presidential and congressional elections – US President Prediction + US Congress Prediction – Barack Obama vs. John McCain

– #1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools … Continue reading

Paul Kedrosky … sucks. – Plus, Jason Trost is bashing InTrade and BetFair in order to boost his startup, Smarkets.

I will soon publish a full post on the relative accuracy of the VP prediction markets (and whether the prediction markets are useful at all, taking into account the occasional upsets theorized by Koleman Strumpf) &#8212-tackling Paul Kedrosky, Felix Salmon, … Continue reading

Mitt Romney [or Sarah Palin] will be the Republican vice presidential nominee.

Tim Pawlenty won&#8217-t go in Dayton, Ohio. So, it&#8217-s Mitt Romney. The play-money and real-money prediction markets were easily fooled with the Pawlenty rumors, yesterday. That vindicates my message that the VP prediction markets feed on unreliable primary indicators. I … Continue reading

Barack Obama drops hints about who his VP candidate will be. – Might be Evan Bayh.

Time: QUESTION: One of the biggest moments in the campaign is going to be your announcement of a vice president. What is that decision going to tell voters about you? BARACK OBAMA: Hopefully, the same thing that my campaign has … Continue reading

Why InTrade CEO John Delaney, TradeSports acting CEO John Delaney, BetFair CEO David Yu, HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles and NewsFutures CEO Emile Servan-Schreiber should supplicate me to develop my prediction market journalism project

– 200 web visitors (coming from Google) reached my John Edwards post, published yesterday afternoon (ET). – 10% of them followed my links to the 2 HubDub prediction markets on John Edwards. – – Remember that those web stats count … Continue reading

Marginal Revolution vs. Freakonomics vs. Overcoming Bias vs. Midas Oracle

Here are the stats about the feed subscribers to these blogs who use either Google Reader or iGoogle. – To interpret these data, you should know that: The web visitors are not counted. The PC-based feed subscribers are not counted. … Continue reading

Alex Costakis of Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) discussing the Weekend Box Office and Summer Releases and predictions on Fox Business.

Those morons at Fox Business spelled his last name &#8220-Kostakis&#8221-, in the video. So, now you know why nobody watches Fox Business &#8212-they are all on CNBC, who can spell correctly. – I&#8217-m not sure the video will go into … Continue reading

What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about event markets (prediction markets)

John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file): July 4th 2008The Commodity Futures Trading CommissionThree Lafayette Centre1155 21st Street NWWashington, DC 20581U.S.A. Attention: Office of the Secretariat RE: “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment … Continue reading