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InTrade has surpassed BetFair and TradeSports (and the Iowa Electronic Markets, too).

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InTrade&#8217-s PageRank is now 7 / 10 &#8212-while all the other major prediction market firms are at 6 / 10.

  1. It shows that the prediction market approach is paying off. Do provide journalist-friendly objective probabilistic predictions (expressed in percentages &#8211-not those fucking decimal odds), and the media will link to you, thanks to all the free-market economists who love your model and act as unpaid publicists for you. Make sure your website can resist under heavy traffic loads on Election Day, and during the occasional days where important news break. Then, milk out all this free publicity. Run registration ads allover your exchange website to attract new traders. Make money. Invest in IT &#8212-but don&#8217-t let the IT maniacs complicate your prediction exchange too much (as BetFair did).
  2. Long-term, the InTrade model (based on the prediction market approach) should be more profitable, in theory. Because of legal impediment, InTrade is not as profitable as it should be, alas.

Google PageRank of Prediction Exchange Sites and Prediction Market Blogs

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Just a short note for the webmasters of prediction exchange websites or the independent bloggers out there:

– Google is refreshing its PageRank system, this week. (More exactly, Google is refreshing the user interface of its PageRank system. The PR system itself is actually refreshed continuously.)

– Check to see whether your site has gained or lost PR. Best wishes to you. (Midas Oracle seems to stay at 6 / 10.)

– Check on many datacenters, and more than just one time, because the change is made gradually thru the many datacenters. Don&#8217-t be fooled by one datacenter that would not be up to date, yet.

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  • Self SEO — (IP to server lookup — Google Page Rank Checker — Google Pagerank Prediction Tool) —
  • iWeb Tool — (Reverse IP / Look-up — PageRank Checker — PageRank Prediction) —
  • PageRank Calculator —
  • Webmaster Tools – (PageRank Checker – Google PageRank Prediction) —

Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA), one year later

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Let&#8217-s revisit our archives:

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Deep Throat:

I agree that the Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA) (in its present form) is highly suspicious.

The purpose of the PMIA was to provide resume and marketing fodder for Jed, Emile and John. It&#8217-s like being president of a high school club: You don&#8217-t have to accomplish anything, but you can list your &#8220-officer&#8221- status on college applications.

As we saw, Emile has already started using it in his NewsFutures marketing. So, the project has actually been a great success for its true purposes!

Its our responsibility to call bullshit on this, and we failed. The PMIA is a fake organization, and nobody deserves any extra street-cred for &#8220-leading&#8221- or &#8220-founding&#8221- it.

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Exago Markets, Portugal, E.U.

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As I understand it:

– Prediction market consultancy in Portugal-

– They probably licensed Xpree&#8216-s software for enterprise prediction markets. UPDATE: They created their own software for enterprise prediction markets.

Best wishes to them.

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Are we witnessing manipulation attempts on the Florida prediction market at InTrade?

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Florida went blue around 8:51 PM, on September 26, 2008&#8230- for a brief period of time:

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The Democratic side:

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Tip via Lance Fortnow

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Previously:Is InTrade being manipulated?

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UPDATE: See Jason Ruspini&#8217-s expert analysis in the comment area.

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All against the BetFair premium charges

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Excellent analysis from the &#8220-Punt&#8221- blogger.

Serial bet winners are accused (that&#8217-s the word) to withdraw money from the BetFair machine, compelling BetFair to attract new money from newbies at a high marketing cost, and thus BetFair has decided to tax those serial bet winners.

I wonder what a Harvard or Wharton MBA would think of this reasoning.

It is my understanding that, in the betting and gambling business, you are always trying to attract new blood to make up for the disillusioned gamblers that you are losing on a daily basis.

Am I correct, folks?

Why don&#8217-t BetFair raise moderately the trading fees for everybody, or try to reduce the cost of the BetFair IT architecture by slashing out what has been unnecessary added by their IT maniacs?

Previously: BetFair impose new “Premium Charges”, and their very active traders are up in arms. – 2008-09-09

As Justin Wolfers noted, maybe there are today bigger practical obstacles to prediction market arbitrage.

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– Legal restrictions for US traders on foreign prediction exchanges (BetFair, etc.)-

– Transaction fees (you would need to operate on 2 exchanges)-

– Currency risks and cost for hedging on that.

Eric Crampton (a Canadian exiled in New Zealand) says he has managed to turn a buck, though, by arbitraging between InTrade and iPredict New Zealand. He also makes 2 theoretical points. Go read it.