Are we witnessing manipulation attempts on the Florida prediction market at InTrade?

No Gravatar

Florida went blue around 8:51 PM, on September 26, 2008&#8230- for a brief period of time:

The Democratic side:

Tip via Lance Fortnow

Previously:Is InTrade being manipulated?

UPDATE: See Jason Ruspini&#8217-s expert analysis in the comment area.

7 thoughts on “Are we witnessing manipulation attempts on the Florida prediction market at InTrade?

  1. Is InTrade being manipulated? Why does InTrade give a discounted probability for Barack Obama as US president? | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] UPDATE: Are we witnessing manipulation attempts on the “Florida to vote Republican” prediction m… […]

  2. Jason Ruspini said:

    No and yes. Based on the time/sales, it looks like a relatively large Dem buyer came into the market, exhausted the offers to the point where selling the Republican contract was cheaper and did that (or it could have been someone else.. the person who sold the Dem contracts, naturally).  The Dem buyer then traded a single contract in each market at prices several points worse than their average price in the buying/selling spree.  It was likely just a relatively large trader in a tiny market – you can’t fault them for that – but those last 2 1-lot trades were in essence manipulative, and small-lot trades at extreme prices are generally an indication of manipulative intent.

  3. Adonis said:

    The perception that the submission of wrongly-priced offers is manipulative is viewed as rather arcane over here (UK).

    These things happen second-by-second on betting exchanges and they get mopped up fast by those aware of the current appropriate fair odds.

    As with stock market players selling short, some think that there’s something inherently WRONG with that! Quite why, I don’t understand… because if a stock is sold short and the stock is actually WORTH the current quoted price, then Market Forces encourage the balance to be restored: the shorter loses his bet!

    Of course…. in a situation where the Market Maker might be allowed to short, well…….. such things seem to me to be BOUND to end up in fraud.

    Rather like a Betting Exchange operator being allowed by the Regulator to “freeze the offers queue” and abstract the difference between bet and lay offers, millisecond-by-millisecond! We have one which admits to doing this…. and has tried to persuade its Clientele that it is DOING IT ON THEIR BEHALF AND IN THEIR INTERESTS!!!!!!!

    Worse, some of the less grey-cell -equipped Clientele actually BELIEVE it!!!!


    Yes, THAT Adonis

  4. Medemi said:


    we all know you’re mugs in the UK. By the time 90% of folks have to shovel shit and eat dirt, the other 10% will still be shouting “Heil Betfair”.

    Unlike the US of A, where the average been-lazy-and-complacent overspending-for-years keep-my-money-in-a-shoebox-now individual has suddenly and magically turned into a financial expert.

    Don’t you just love democracies.

  5. Jason Ruspini said:

    I agree that the short-selling ban is an outrage, but let’s be honest — when a business is predicated on borrowing and lending at certain rates, manipulation might be irreversible if it attacks the business’s fundings costs.

    Either political prediction markets will be small and not widely-followed — or large and widely-followed enough to risk self-fulfilling prophecies. In that sense, some research (that is not about research) is incomplete.

  6. Medemi said:

    Off topic as usual, but I was wondering what the next “bailout” package will be called.

    The Wall Street stimulus package perhaps ? Talk about PR disasters…

    I think they will call it a rescue package this time.

  7. Medemi said:

    Something happened with Google (GOOG) today.

    The price went all the way down to ZERO as someone dumped 2,000,000 shares 3 minutes before the close.…..tchart.asp

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *