Tag Archives: political prediction markets

Wolfy is cited FIVE TIMES in this prediction market story.

Posted on December 1, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Political prediction markets @ Politico –> The sur-excited Wolfy exaggerates the usefulness of the prediction markets. –> ‘Yay, free markets!… Greed is good!… Yep, people respond to incentives!… Markets work!… Capitalism triumphs.’

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged BetFair, bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, IEM, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, Justin Wolfers, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, US politics | Leave a comment

BetFair’s political prediction markets on the BBC – [VIDEO]

Posted on April 14, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

47:20 into For viewers presently in the U.K. only —alas. The Beeb won’t show you the video if you are from the States or the F country.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged BBC, BetFair, betting markets, event derivative markets, Great Britain, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, UK politics, United Kingdom | Leave a comment

The UK political prediction markets are starting to get fun.

Posted on March 26, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

The British Republicans (“the Tories”) have dipped a bit more at BetFair, yesterday, and everybody is wondering why. (See the first comment in the second link.) Expect Max Keiser to weight in. We are going to have fun this spring, … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged BetFair, betting markets, conservatives, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, Tories, UK political prediction markets, UK politics, United Kingdom | 3 Comments

UK political prediction markets at Smarkets

Posted on March 23, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Just opened.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Genesis, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, Great Britain, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, Smarkets, UK political prediction markets, UK politics, United Kingdom | Leave a comment

Andrew Goldberg chronicles the political prediction markets on video.

Posted on October 8, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged Andrew Goldberg, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, political prediction markets, prediction markets, US politics, video, videos | Leave a comment

State Polls vs. Prediction Markets — 2008 US Presidential Election Prediction

Posted on November 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Here are the latest (and last) state polls and prediction market probabilities. I am writing this post at 10:00 am —on Tuesday, November 4, 2008. – Contents a visual roundup of the prediction market probabilities for the 2008 US electoral … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, state polls, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

2008 US electoral map prediction for the 2008 US presidential elections

Posted on October 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Folks, – IMPORTANT NOTE: – Till Election Day, this present blog (Midas Oracle .ORG) is going to update you once in a while about the horse race thru the lens of the prediction markets. – Additionally, the other blog (Midas … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

Freakonomics is the latest in a long series of (usually, serious) bloggers who have misinformed the public by stating that the institutional investor is manipulating the US political election prediction markets.

Posted on October 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The anonymous blogger (probably the editor, Annika Mengisen) titles the post, “A New Kind of Campaign Advertising?”, and asks: Will market manipulation for political candidates become the norm as ever-wealthier campaigns try to control the news cycle? No…!!!… John Delaney … Continue reading →

Posted in Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Hedging & Insurance, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, Finance, Freakonomics, Hedging, InTrade, John Delaney, manipulations, market manipulations, New York Times, political hedging, political prediction markets, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, risk hedging, US elections, US politics | Leave a comment

The New York Times on InTrade’s US political election prediction markets

Posted on October 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The NYT writers discusses 2 (different?) issues. – #1. There was market arbitrage opportunies in the recent past between InTrade and BetFair —unlike 4 years ago, and contrary to the laws of economics. – The price of the Barack Obama … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, arbitrage, Barack Obama, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, bookmakers, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, Hedging, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, John McCain, manipulations, market arbitrage, market manipulations, political hedging, political prediction markets, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, risk hedging, US elections | 1 Comment

Economics blogger Zubin Jelveh got it right about the InTrade hedging thing.

Posted on October 19, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

“No Manipulation At InTrade“ Exactly. John Delaney said that that firm has been hedging on InTrade —a normal and beneficial activity on the other (larger and more liquid) financial markets. InTrade is not liquid enough to weather (quickly enough) the … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Hedging & Insurance, Prediction Journalism | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, Finance, Hedging, InTrade, John Delaney, manipulations, market manipulations, Odd Numbers, political hedging, political prediction markets, Portofolio, prediction market analysis, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, risk hedging, US elections, US politics, Zubin Jelveh | Leave a comment

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