Tim Pawlenty won’-t go in Dayton, Ohio. So, it’-s Mitt Romney.
The play-money and real-money prediction markets were easily fooled with the Pawlenty rumors, yesterday.
That vindicates my message that the VP prediction markets feed on unreliable primary indicators.
I said from day one to be careful with the VP prediction markets.
I told you so.
UPDATE: It’-s probably Sarah Palin.
Link to the InTrade prediction market.
Below, I try to hot-link to the chart, I’-m not sure at this point it will work. We will see.
The New York Times has a recount on how Barack Obama reached his decision on Joe Biden. The final decision was probably made 10 days ago, while Barack Obama was vacationing in Hawaii.
[…] Mr. Obama’s decision had as much to do with Mr. Biden’s appeal among white working-class voters and compelling personal story, and his conclusion that the Delaware senator was “-a worker.”-
The important information in the NYT piece is that Barack Obama personally called governor Bill Richardson “-late last week”- to announce him that he was not considered anymore. That’-s around the time the Joe Biden rumor began to have more weight in the media circles —-see the InTrade chart below.
Bo Cowgill, back in May 2008 (when I started to act as a prophet of doom):
This is dumb. Cover them if something interesting happens. Maybe your theory will turn out to be wrong. Anyhow: Although the decision is made in secrecy, the Presidential nominees have a number incentives which we have plenty of information about. Specifically:
* They want someone who will balance their tickets in terms of geography, race and class.
* They want someone who will help with weak areas of their campaigns.
* They want someone who will be a good campaign surrogate — giving good speeches and attacking the opponents effectively.
* They want to avoid a VP who will de-motivate or offend the base.
* They want to avoid someone with a bunch of skeletons in the closet such as angry ex-wives, out-of-wedlock kids, etc.
* Etc etc.
Anyhow, I don’t see any reason to ignore these markets in case something interesting happens. I read Midas Oracle so that I don’t *have* to read a whole bunch of other websites!
Bo Cowgill was on the right track, now that I think of it —-in a society where everything leaks out.
On the opposite of the spectrum, Tom Snee was too much extreme in his view:
According to Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Market, at Iowa University, futures markets need more hard information than they get in the veepstakes, to reliably predict a result.
Markets are very good at predicting elections, he says – but not choices being made inside Barack Obama’-s or John McCain’-s head.
Justin Wolfers was more measured.
So, Bo Cowgill and Justin Wolfers are the winners, on that one.
I was partially wrong. I am a bit too extreme, sometimes. (Did someone else notice that? ) I need to learn more about…- granularity.
PS: On the Republican side, now…-
Who will be the Republican Vice Presidential Nominee?
Here are the event derivative charts of expired InTrade contracts.
[Psstt…- I have high hopes about being able to publish the charts of expired BetFair contracts, too, soon. ]
Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada
Democratic caucus in Nevada (the Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired at 100):
Republican caucus in Nevada (the Mitt Romney event derivative was expired at 100):
Republican primary in South Carolina
Republican primary in South Carolina (the John McCain event derivative was expired to 100):
“-Field”- = Mike Husckabee
Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:
- Super Bowl XLII
- The Glorious Incertitude Of Sports
- TradeSports Cost Of Transaction
- The prediction market industry needs people who have balls.
- Is it good to have a prediction market melting pot of academics and businesses?
- Is it time to buy some Michael Bloomberg event derivatives?
- Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams excluded from the BetFair blog feed
Michigan, U.S.A. —- Tuesday, January 15, 2008
The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100.
The Mitt Romney event derivative was expired to 100.