Prediction Markets = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

Tag Archives: internet marketing

Inkling Markets and HubDub in TechCrunch

- Inkling Markets infiltrated TechCrunch 6 times.
- HubDub did that a lot more.
Nigel Eccles for President…!!!…

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Mike Linksvayer *himself* is to blame for the non-liquidity of his Wikipedia prediction markets.

Mike Linksvayer:
Prior to the Wikipedia community vote on adopting CC BY-SA it crossed my mind to set up several play money prediction market contracts concerning the above outcomes conditioned on Wikipedia adopting CC BY-SA by August 1, 2009, for which I did set up a contract. It is just as well that I didn’t — [...]

“Collective Forecasting”… becomes officially our second industry keyword starting today —I decreeted that after a good slurp of Bordeaux wine.

In homage to our good doctor Robin Hanson (I am too good, I know), I let the term “collective forecasting” appear in the description of the LinkedIn group on prediction markets:
This group is for anybody who have a strong interest in prediction markets (and collective forecasting, generally) or works in the prediction market industry. Everybody [...]

Some thougths about Amazon.com

- They are testing Twitter. I would look at the Twitter presences of Tim O’Reilly, StarBucks and NakedPizza for ideas on how to use Twitter. In my view, the StarBucks idea to have one Twitter journalist/blogger inside StarBucks reporting from within and exchanging with customers is an idea that is worth one hundred million dollars [...]

Why reporting on *one* expired prediction market is no fun… when using the scientific approach

Panos Ipeirotis hates it when I report an individual prediction market “failure“. (”Stupidity” is how he labelled it. )

I am a fan of Panos Ipeirotis’s scientific approach on prediction markets. It is all right.
However, I (obviously) won’t use the statistical and probabilistic approach when reporting about the expiry of one (or two) prediction [...]

Internet Business Models

I have opened a second LinkedIn group (the first is centered on prediction markets), this time on the topic of Internet business models, and how they differ from the physical world’s ones. Feel free to join moi (I am the only member at the time of writing). Also, you can follow the other Midas Oracle [...]

Will any prediction market startup surge like *that*?

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Business Models

Fred Wilson (who invested in Twitter):

CPM ads (”cost per thousand views”; banner ads online and regular ads in print, TV and radio)
CPC ads (”cost per click”; think Google ads)
CPT ads (”cost per transaction”; you pay only if the customer brought to you from a media sites becomes a paying customer. Here’s an example.)
Lead generation (you [...]

What prediction markets can learn from Twitter — REDUX

S-I-M-P-L-I-C-I-T-Y + C-U-S-T-O-M-I-Z-A-T-I-O-N
Twitter is a very simplistic core. Around that core is a whole ecosystem that adds value to Twitter. You have a large choice of “Twitter clients”, and there are plenty of websites out there that complement the basic Twitter service.
It is the anti-BetFair case. The future prediction exchanges will be built around a [...]

What prediction markets can learn from Twitter

S-I-M-P-L-I-C-I-T-Y
If betting and trading were as simple and elegant as twittering (think of it as the anti-BetFair case), then we would be able to convert the whole Planet Earth to using and checking prediction markets —providing that prediction markets [*] were truly a purple cow, which is something many of us are discussing (sometimes vehemently) [...]

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