Monthly Archives: September 2008

InTrade has surpassed BetFair and TradeSports (and the Iowa Electronic Markets, too).

InTrade’s PageRank is now 7 / 10 —while all the other major prediction market firms are at 6 / 10. It shows that the prediction market approach is paying off. Do provide journalist-friendly objective probabilistic predictions (expressed in percentages –not … Continue reading

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Google PageRank of Prediction Exchange Sites and Prediction Market Blogs

Just a short note for the webmasters of prediction exchange websites or the independent bloggers out there: – Google is refreshing its PageRank system, this week. (More exactly, Google is refreshing the user interface of its PageRank system. The PR … Continue reading

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FAIL

Technical Note: If you are not able to see the right end of the huge chart below, read my info-tech tips over there. – -

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2 Democratic-leaning columnists who used to deride the prediction markets are now over-quoting them —now that those prediction markets are predicting a landslide for Barack Obama come November 2008.

- Paul Krugman – Today: A real little PM fanboy. – Yesterday: Overly critical. (See Eric Zitzewitz’s comment.) – Daniel Gross – Today: A real little PM fanboy. (See towards the end.) – Yesterday: Overly critical. – As for the … Continue reading

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Spikes

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Exago Markets have created their own software for enterprise prediction markets.

Dixit the co-founder and CEO, Pedro da Cunha. CDA with an automated market maker. OK, so I am going to list them here, here, and here. Best wishes to them. -

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Yahoo! News finally links to InTrade —for legal reasons, not to InTrade .COM (their real-money prediction exchange), but to InTrade .NET (their play-money prediction exchange, which uses an AMM linked to InTrade .COM, without disclosing it to the public).

- – InTrade .COM – InTrade .NET -

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The Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA) is a shallow organization that hasn’t accomplished anything, and now the world-wide world knows about that fake organization lead by a triumvirat of non-US people who are not fully representative of the international prediction market scene.

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Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA), one year later

Let’s revisit our archives: – Deep Throat: I agree that the Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA) (in its present form) is highly suspicious. The purpose of the PMIA was to provide resume and marketing fodder for Jed, Emile and John. … Continue reading

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Good Morning America.

I Told You So. by Ed Miracle This painting was on the cover of Thomas Friedman’s book, The World Is Flat.

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