Tag Archives: Midas Oracle

Our Embargo Policy

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There are scores of reactions out there about Michael Arrington&#8217-s decision to &#8220-break every embargo we agree to.&#8221-

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#1. I WILL RESPECT YOUR EMBARGO.

If you give me and all the other media outlets a news ahead of its official unveiling, I will indeed publish after the date and time you mentioned.

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#2. I WILL NOT PUBLISH YOUR TRADE SECRETS.

Period.

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#3. I WILL NOT RECEIVE ORDERS FROM YOU.

If the news is public (say, published on an official governmental website), then I will go ahead informing the Midas Oracle readers about that public information.

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#4. MIDAS ORACLE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO WEATHER ANY RETALIATION.

– Midas Oracle is the world&#8217-s #1 group blog on prediction markets.

– Our LinkedIn group is the world&#8217-s #1 social networking group on prediction markets (4 times bigger than the San Francisco bozo&#8217-s one).

– Our Open Institute Of Prediction Markets will be the world&#8217-s #1 institution on prediction markets, juicing out luminaries, prediction market companies, and other organizations.

See, life is too short to waste it with psychos who over-obsess with putting up their name in press releases. We are building for the long term, as for us.

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#5. Here are our Terms Of Use.

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Giving Thanks

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– Thanks to my readers.

– Thanks to InTrade, BetFair, NewsFutures, HubDub, etc.

– Thanks to Robin Hanson, David Pennock, Lance Fortnow, Jason Ruspini, Mike Giberson, David Perry, Adam Siegel, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Nigel Eccles, Chris Hibbert, Panagiotis Ipeirotis, George Tziralis, Eric Zitzewitz, Koleman Strumpf, Mike Linksvayer, etc.

– Thanks to WordPress, FireFox, Google, Wikipedia, etc.

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Midas Oracle thanks these guys for participating (by publishing posts and/or comments) in our ongoing discussion about the social utility of the prediction markets.

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Tom W. Bell – Tom Bell – Post Archive at Midas Oracle – (Post Feed) – Professor – Law (Chapman University) – Blog: Agoraphilia – California, U.S.A.

Caveat Bettor [pseudonym] – Post Archive at Midas Oracle – (Post Feed) – Event Derivative Trader – Blog: Caveat Bettor – North America

Bo Cowgill – Post Archive at Midas Oracle – (Post Feed) – Quantitative Marketing Manager – Google – Blog: Bo Cowgill – California, U.S.A.

Nigel Eccles – Post Archive at Midas Oracle – (Post Feed) – CEO – HubDub – Blog: HubDub – Scotland, United Kingdom, E.U.

Michael Giberson – Mike Giberson – Post Archive at Midas Oracle – (Post Feed) – Energy Economist (Center for Energy Commerce, Rawls College of Business, Texas Tech University) – Site: Michael Giberson – Blog: Knowledge Problem – Texas, U.S.A.

Robin Hanson – Post Archive at Midas Oracle – (Post Feed) – Professor – Economics (George Mason University) – Blogs: Overcoming Bias – Virginia, U.S.A.

Chris Hibbert – Post Archive at Midas Oracle – (Post Feed) – Software Architect (Zocalo) – Site: My Druthers – Blog: PanCrit – California, U.S.A.

Alex Kirtland – Post Archive at Midas Oracle – (Post Feed) – Internet Usability Expert – Blog: Usable Markets – New York, U.S.A.

Mike Linksvayer – Post Archive at Midas Oracle – (Post Feed) – Vice-President of Creative Commons – Blog: Mike Linksvayer – California, U.S.A.

David Pennock – Post Archive at Midas Oracle – (Post Feed) – Principal Research Scientist at Yahoo! – Yahoo! Research – Blog: Odd Head – New York, U.S.A.

Jason Ruspini – Post Archive at Midas Oracle – (Post Feed) – Financial Research Analyst, Vice President at Conquest Capital Group – Blog: Risk Markets &amp- Politics – New York, U.S.A.

Emile Servan-Schreiber – Post Archive at Midas Oracle – (Post Feed) – CEO – NewsFutures – Blog: NewsFutures – Maryland, U.S.A. &amp- France, E.U.

Adam Siegel – Post Archive at Midas Oracle – (Post Feed) – CEO – Inkling Markets – Illinois, U.S.A.

Koleman Strumpf – Post Archive at Midas Oracle – (Post Feed) – Professor – Economics (University of Kansas) – Kansas, U.S.A.

George Tziralis – Post Archive at Midas Oracle – (Post Feed) – Doctoral Researcher – National Technical University of Athens – George Tziralis&#8217-s Home Page – Site: Ask Markets – Greece, E.U.

Eric Zitzewitz – Post Archive at Midas Oracle – (Post Feed) – Professor – Economics (Dartmouth College) – Site: Zitzewitz.net – California, U.S.A.

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Pssttt&#8230- Let me know if I should make a change in a label, or add a link, or else.

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Google PageRank of Prediction Exchange Sites and Prediction Market Blogs

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Just a short note for the webmasters of prediction exchange websites or the independent bloggers out there:

– Google is refreshing its PageRank system, this week. (More exactly, Google is refreshing the user interface of its PageRank system. The PR system itself is actually refreshed continuously.)

– Check to see whether your site has gained or lost PR. Best wishes to you. (Midas Oracle seems to stay at 6 / 10.)

– Check on many datacenters, and more than just one time, because the change is made gradually thru the many datacenters. Don&#8217-t be fooled by one datacenter that would not be up to date, yet.

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  • Self SEO — (IP to server lookup — Google Page Rank Checker — Google Pagerank Prediction Tool) —
  • iWeb Tool — (Reverse IP / Look-up — PageRank Checker — PageRank Prediction) —
  • PageRank Calculator —
  • Webmaster Tools – (PageRank Checker – Google PageRank Prediction) —

2008 US Presidential and Congressional Elections Prediction: The Sarah Palin effect has partially evaporated, but its remains point to a close race, come Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

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#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets

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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out&#8230- Intelligence in, intelligence out&#8230-

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

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More Info:

– The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

– Prediction Market Science

– The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

– All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

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#2. Objective Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

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Put your mouse on your selected chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab to get directed to the prediction market page of your favorite exchange.

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2008 US Elections

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InTrade

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2008 US Electoral College

2008 Electoral Map Prediction = InTrade – Electoral College Prediction Markets = Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade = electoralmarkets.com

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– This is a dynamic chart, which is up to date. Click on the image, and open the website in another browser tab to get the bigger version.

Midas Oracle wants you to set your screen resolution very high.

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  • Set the screen resolution of your PC at 1600 x 1200 pixels or more.
  • You will probably have to augment the size of the font(s) used by your browser and your other software.

That way, you will have more things on your screen.

And you will enjoy our extended horizontal menu bar, present on top of every Midas Oracle webpage. More menu choices means more opportunities for the web visitors to discover the prediction markets. :-D Which is good for all the prediction market people and organizations listed on those webpages. :-D

Google Web Search shows that I am the only blogger in the world to talk about prediction market journalism.

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Good thing: I&#8217-m a pioneer (following Justin Wolfers&#8217- footsteps).

Bad thing: The whole world does not give the first fig about &#8220-prediction market journalism&#8220-. We will spend much energy introducing them to this new concept.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • BetFair angel investor Sean Park says that Jed Christiansen’s anti-sport comment to the CFTC stinks like rotten dead fish under the Egyptian sun.
  • Did ex-HSX Max Keiser cowardly give up on his prediction market TV journalism project? His website, predictionmarkets.tv, now redirects to a clunky YouTube video webpage.
  • Big Brother
  • Enterprise prediction markets in Israel
  • 2 interesting links — Monday Morning Edition
  • Track Record Collecting vs. Prediction Markets
  • Why don’t prediction market people submit conference proposals for SXSW 2009?