Category Archives: Politics

VIDEO: Why Hillary Clinton will never be the Vice President of the United States of America.

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Commenter &#8220-Just Hinting&#8221- gives us this link:

Dick Morris phone interview

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Midas Oracle is only 6 times smaller than Fred Wilson’s blog, “A VC”.
  • The best blogs on prediction markets
  • The New Republic profiles the next Vice President of the United States of America —Jim Webb, maybe.
  • No Trades (other than at the start) —-> Not a reliable predictor, as of today
  • How you should read Midas Oracle
  • The best prediction exchanges
  • “There will be no media consumption left in ten years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”

Dick Morris (ex-strategist for Bill Clinton) devoted, not one, but two, strong columns against the Hillary-Clinton-as-VP scenario.

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Dick Morris:

It would be an act of terminal insanity for Barack Obama to name Hillary Clinton as his vice presidential candidate. […] Finally, having Hillary in the West Wing would be a nightmare.

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Dick Morris:

Instead of conceding defeat and campaigning for Obama, auditioning for the spot of loyal teammate, Hillary insists on keeping her options open and vies for the spotlight with Obama, exactly what you do not want a vice president to do. […]

But the more serious problem is the public record that Todd Purdum, an excellent journalist, laid out in his Vanity Fair piece. Bill’s relationships with billionaires, his pursuit of financial gain, his alliance with the emir of Dubai, and his acceptance of speaking fees and income from some of the least savory of types is not what you need to carry around with you in a presidential race. […]

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More Info: See Andrew Sullivan&#8230- who views Hillary Clinton as a detestable lady&#8230-

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So, stay away from the &#8220-Hillary Clinton As VP&#8221- prediction markets&#8230- :-D

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Tasmanias Prime Minister who licenced BetFair Australia departs abruptly.

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Mercury + The Austrlalian

Hello to our readers from Down Under.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • American Enterprise Institute’s Center For Regulatory And Market Studies (Policy Markets)
  • IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets
  • Science
  • Why did prediction markets do well in the pre-polling era, professor Strumpf?
  • Mozilla FireFox users, do you have trouble downloading academic papers (as PDF files) from SSRN?
  • “Impact Matrix. Used to collect and gauge the likelihood and business impact of various events in the very long term.”
  • Ends and Means of Prediction Markets — Tom W. Bell Edition

Robin Hanson would be better off lobbying for prediction markets with the people who will be in power next November -that is, the Democrats, not the right-wing people of the American Enterprise Institute.

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Does Robin Hanson read the political prediction markets which he co-invented? If he read them, he would see that we&#8217-re going to get a big Democratic swipe, in November 2008. The American people will get rid of the neo-cons, the warmongers, and other right-wing nuts.

Then, if you wanted to &#8220-lobby&#8221- for the prediction markets, you would get your message thru using either a Democratic or bi-partisan vehicle &#8212-not the right-wing American Enterprise Institute. What weight will those right-wing people carry next November? They&#8217-ll be finished &#8212-until a brand-new Newt Gingrich alike pops up in the years 2020.

Get a ride in K Street with the right people, doc &#8212-that is, in our case, like it or not, the leftists.

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Frances Nicolas Sarkozy – One year later, the French economy is still in the mud.

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No good.

  1. Nicolas Sarkozy has become the most unpopular French president ever &#8212-primarily due to his personal behavior.
  2. France’s public finances deteriorated in 2007, hovering close to the Maastricht 3% mark.
  3. Public spending (54% of gross domestic product) is the highest in the European Union.
  4. Nicolas Sarkozy has launched some reforms, which were needed, but which will not suffice.
  5. He created a bureaucratic body supposed to propose economic reforms, but will the French politicians act on them?
  6. The free-market philosophy is still view as devilish (and the Americans and the British are viewed as evil, since they are the ones who push for free markets and free trade) &#8212-even by the French people who vote for the Right.
  7. I don&#8217-t see much emphasis made on the virtues of working, inventing, innovating, creating startups, spreading modern knowledge, etc. I see people talking about how to take longer vacations (to the point that the French economy comes to a halt, each year, in the month of May, on top of July, August and December) and how to retire early (at the expense of the youngsters).
  8. Unlike urban China or the Silicon Valley, France is not vibrant &#8212-the French are consuming their future, instead of planning it.
  9. Overall, my sentiment is negative.

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Don&#8217-t expect more posts about Sarkozy from me, in the future, here. I did this post because one betting Irishman in London keeps querying Google for &#8220-midas oracle sarkozy&#8221-. :-D

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For more info, see The Economist, Bloomberg, or CNBC. But the best link to visit is the first one I published in the text above.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Prediction Markets
  • Meet professor Justin Wolfers.
  • Become “friend” with me on Google E-Mail so as to share feed items with me within Google Reader.
  • Nigel Eccles’ flawed “vision” about HubDub shows that he hasn’t any.
  • How does InTrade deal with insider trading?
  • Modern Life
  • “The Beacon” is an excellent blog published by The Independent Institute.

No offense, but I think Radley Balko is the most valuable blogger in America right now.

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No GravatarNo offense taken. I agree totally. (Link via mister Bo Cowgill, within Google Reader.)

Hit &amp- Run &#8212- that&#8217-s where Radley Balko blogs, mainly&#8230- (See also The Agitator.)

Reason

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Psstt&#8230- Does someone know who is the British Radley Balko?? I would add him/her in my blogroll&#8230- I also take other link suggestions&#8230- Don&#8217-t be shy&#8230-

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Terrorism Futures
  • InTrade-TradeSports and BetFair-TradeFair should take a close look at Cantor Fitzgerald’s strategy to gain a share of the $100 billion U.S. gambling industry.
  • The secrecy-seeking Mark Davies is solely to blame for all this mess… but this vibrating BetFair spin doctor has managed to repair the PR damages quite brillantly, it shall be said.
  • A Betting Exchange = A Bookmaker —> !??
  • BetFair’s new bet matching logic + BetFair Malta’s trading on the multiples
  • Dick Cheney, the new Churchill?
  • BetFair Malta’s combo market maker (trading algorithm + human market makers) operating on the multiples

Based on the analysis of some 600,000 official Iraqi documents seized by US forces after the invasion and thousands of hours of interrogations of former officials in Saddams government now in US custody, there is no evidence Saddam Hussein had ties to Al Qaeda.

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No GravatarABC News

PDF file

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Business Risks & Prediction Markets
  • Brand-new BetFair bet-matching logic proves to be very controversial with some event derivative traders.
  • Jimmy Wales accused of editing Wikipedia for donations.
  • What the prediction market experts said on Predictify
  • Are you a MSR addict like Mike Giberson? Have nothing to do this week-end? Wanna trade on a play-money prediction exchange instead of watching cable TV? Wanna win an i-Phone?
  • The secret Google document that Bo Cowgill doesn’t want you to see
  • BetFair’s brand-new matching-bet logic is endorsed by the Chairman of the Midas Oracle Advisory Board.

Justin Wolfers is a wise man.

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Zubin Jelveh highlights this piece of wisdom (which I didn&#8217-t quote in my previous post):

It seems to me that the truly important violations of the public trust are when the power we give our government officials is sold, rather than what government officials choose to buy. Yet our political scandals are too often dominated by private mistakes, rather than public misdeeds. This is why I&#8217-m more worried about what the SEC is selling than what Eliot Spitzer has been buying.

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Psstt&#8230- CNBC will have a special Eliot Spitzer piece starting at 8:00 PM EST, tonite (Wednesday, March 12), I&#8217-ve just heard.

Psstt&#8230- And &#8220-Page 6&#8243- has the pic of that woman, that &#8220-Kristen&#8221-&#8230-

Kristen

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Room 871:

Room 871

So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February.

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No GravatarJonathan Alter: &#8220-Hillary’s Math Problem – Forget tonight. She could win 16 straight and still lose.&#8221-

UPDATE

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Red Herring’s list of the top 100 North-American high-tech startups includes Inkling Markets —but not NewsFutures, Consensus Point, or Xpree.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf explains the prediction markets to the countryland people.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.
  • Time magazine interview the 2 BetFair-Tradefair co-founders, and not a single time do they pronounce the magic words, “prediction markets”.
  • One Deep Throat told me that this VC firm might have been connected with the Irish prediction exchange, at inception.
  • BetFair Rapid = BetFair’s standalone, local, PC-based, order-entry software for prediction markets
  • Michael Moore tells the Democratic people to go Barack Obama in Pennsylvania (a two-tier state), but the polls and the prediction markets tell us that that won’t do the trick.