U.S. Supreme Court Prediction Market – [PAPER]

Recently posted to SSRN: FantasySCOTUS: Crowdsourcing a Prediction Market for the Supreme Court, a draft paper by Josh Blackman, Adam Aft, &amp- Corey Carpenter assessing the accuracy of the Harlan Institute&#8217-s U.S. Supreme Court prediction market, FantasySCOTUS.org. The paper compares and contrasts the accuracy of FantasySCOTUS, which relied on a &#8220-wisdom of the crowd&#8221- approach, with the Supreme Court Forecasting Project, which relied on a computer model of Supreme Court decision making. From the paper&#8217-s abstract:

During the October 2009 Supreme Court term, the 5,000 members made over 11,000 predictions for all 81 cases decided. Based on this data, FantasySCOTUS accurately predicted a majority of the cases, and the top-ranked experts predicted over 75% of the cases correctly. With this combined knowledge, we can now have a method to determine with a degree of certainty how the Justices will decide cases before they do. . . . During the October 2002 Term, the [FantasySCOTUS] Project’s model predicted 75% of the cases correctly, which was more accurate than the [Supreme Court] Forecasting Project’s experts, who only predicted 59.1% of the cases correctly. The FantasySCOTUS experts predicted 64.7% of the cases correctly, surpassing the Forecasting Project’s Experts, though the difference was not statistically significant. The Gold, Silver, and Bronze medalists in FantasySCOTUS scored staggering accuracy rates of 80%, 75% and 72% respectively (an average of 75.7%). The FantasySCOTUS top three experts not only outperformed the Forecasting Project’s experts, but they also slightly outperformed the Project’s model &#8211- 75.7% compared with 75%.

You can download a copy of the draft paper here.

[Crossposted at Agoraphilia, Midas Oracle, and MoneyLaw.]

Andrea Rossis cold fusion reactor (E-cat) – [LINKS]

I have posted about Andrea Rossi&#8217-s cold fusion reactor, which inputs nickel powder (with some catalysts) and hydrogen, and which outputs heat (factor 30) and copper. Since I have updated that post, I wanted to recommend you 2 interviews of him, and some physics articles.

The price of nickel is so low (20 euro per kg) that it should have to raise of orders of magnitude to make this tech uncompetitive. Nickel is very common on the Earth, and with a tiny percentage of the yearly extraction of nickel it would be possible to produce all the energy needed in the World.

How Andrea Rossi financed his R&amp-D.

The 18-hour test.

Physics discussion. More.

The powder has reportedly been used for 2.5 months continuously with an output of 10 kW (according to Rossi). It corresponds to a total energy of 18 MWh, with a consumption of up to 100 grams of nickel and two grams of hydrogen. If the production had been done with oil, two tons of oil would have been required.

The Greek power plant.

– Finally, here&#8217-s an index of all papers and articles on cold fusion, cold fusion reactors, low-energy nuclear reactions, chemically-assisted nuclear reactions, etc.: http://www.lenr-canr.org/

ADDENDUM:

Cold Fusion Prediction Markets – [HISTORY]

In April 1989, Robin Hanson created this prediction market:

By 1/1/91 a &lt-1 liter device will have generated over 1 watt of power output more than input from room-T fusion, including amortized power to create/separate components.

I suppose that InTrade will be willing to float E-cat contracts. We&#8217-ll see.

Wall Street analystss view is too short term.

And that includes Jason Ruspini.

UPDATE:

– Keep in mind that, at inception, Apple also underestimated the iPad numbers. They had to ramp up production, later on.

– See Paul Hewitt&#8217-s comment, below.