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- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
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Tag Archives: US presidential elections
New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS]
The political prediction markets got the Democratic race wrong in New Hampshire, last time. More here. – New Hampshire – The Democrats – The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100. – New Hampshire – The Republicans – The … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice)
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Tagged 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary, 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, betting markets, Collective Intelligence, democrats, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, Hillary Clinton, idea futures, indicators, John McCain, New Hampshire, polls, prediction markets, US presidential elections, US primaries, wisdom of crowds
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SXSW: Nate Silver explains how he approached political forecasting for the 2008 US presidential elections. – [VIDEO]
In part #2, he speaks about the books he is writing:
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Science
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Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, forecasting, forecasting models, models, Nate Silver, political forecasting, Politics, Psychology, statistical models, statistics, SXSW 2009, US politics, US presidential elections
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Flawed New Hampshire polls = Non-accurate New Hampshire prediction markets
The most comprehensive analysis ever conducted of presidential primary polls: “a handful of methodological missteps and miscalculations combined to undermine the accuracy of predictions about presidential primary winners in New Hampshire and three other states.” Via Mister the Great Research … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics
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Tagged 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary, 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, Collective Intelligence, democrats, Hillary Clinton, idea futures, indicators, John McCain, New Hampshire, polls, prediction markets, US presidential elections, US primaries, wisdom of crowds
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2008 US electoral map prediction — generated by the prediction markets
InTrade vs. BetFair vs. HubDub – InTrade: – BetFair: – HubDub: – [Cross-posted from Midas Oracle .COM.]
Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics
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Tagged 2008 US electoral map prediction, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, betting markets, event derivative markets, HubDub, InTrade, John McCain, prediction markets, US politics, US presidential elections
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State Polls vs. Prediction Markets — 2008 US Presidential Election Prediction
Here are the latest (and last) state polls and prediction market probabilities. I am writing this post at 10:00 am —on Tuesday, November 4, 2008. – Contents a visual roundup of the prediction market probabilities for the 2008 US electoral … Continue reading →
Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics
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Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, state polls, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor
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Will Florida vote for Barack Obama or John McCain?
Here’s a quick roundup of the state polls and of the prediction markets… for the state of Florida. Data were taken around 1:00 pm —this Friday, October 31, 2008. – #1. PREDICTION MARKETS – InTrade: Florida will vote Barack Obama. … Continue reading →
Electoral college map prediction for the 2008 US presidential election —based on state polls and prediction markets
Wanna know who is going to win on November 4? Do scroll down. – Contents: a visual roundup of the odds for the 2008 US electoral college the latest news about the race for the White House a visual roundup … Continue reading →
Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics
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Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, betting markets, event derivative markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), HubDub, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, John McCain, NewsFutures, polls, prediction markets, Predictions, US politics, US presidential elections
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The definitive proof that HubDub is an indispensable prediction exchange. [*]
As I told you, I am blogging as often as possible on the other blog (Midas Oracle .COM) about the 2008 US presidential elections as seen thru the eyes of the prediction markets. As I wrote there this morning, I … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Market Calls), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics
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Tagged 2008 US pesidential elections, Barack Obama, Dow Jones, financial crisis, Financial Markets, HubDub, prediction markets, stock markets, US politics, US presidential elections
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Are the polls accurate? — Electoral college map prediction for the 2008 US presidential election
The United States presidential election of 2008 is scheduled for Tuesday, November 4, 2008. Here’s an aggregation of the state polls —it gives you a historical view of the potential electoral college (“270” is the magic number). – - As … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Resources - References, The Global Economy
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Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Bradley Effect, HubDub, InTrade, John McCain, leading indicators, NewsFutures, polls, prediction markets, Reverse Bradley Effect, US politics, US presidential elections
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