Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Iowa

2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: Prediction Markets for the 2008 US Electoral College

ELECTORAL COLLEGE MARKETS: Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland —(electoralmarkets.com).
By Lance Fortnow, David Pennock, and Yiling Chen.
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#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets
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A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as [...]

What I said to BusinessWeek

BusinessWeek’s Ricky McRoskey:
Experts expect the initial reaction to CFTC regulation to be more low-cap, nonprofit markets like the one created by the University of Iowa. Some doubt the forecasting power in these small-scale markets, since there wouldn’t be enough monetary incentive for traders to seek and discover information. “We do not need nonprofit prediction exchanges,” [...]

Are US-based real-money prediction exchanges to become federally regulated (as DCMs)? Or semi-regulated (as ECMs, or as exchanges covered by “no-action” letters)?

BusinessWeek:
In its request for comment, the CFTC reminded the public that the commission should “promote innovation for futures and derivatives.” It also added that —hint, hint— the Iowa markets have been valuable sources of public information and have predicted Presidential outcomes better than polls. The 2000 act gave the CFTC the authority “to promote responsible [...]

Tom W. Bell rebuts the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).

Tom W. Bell:
The CFTC should not limit “no action” status to markets run by tax-exempt organizations. The no-action letters that the CFTC issued to the IEM emphasized not the nature of the hosting institution, the University of Iowa, but rather the business model adopted by the IEM itself. Profitability could not have mattered, as tax-exempt [...]

Let’s Tell the CFTC Where to Go.

Update: I’ve extended the deadline for signing up until 7 p.m. Pacific, Sunday, July 6. Also, I fixed a typo in paragraph 3, changing “denying” to “giving.” (Thanks, Gil!)>
The deadline looms for interested parties to respond to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s request for comments about regulating prediction markets (“event markets” in [...]

Forrest Nelson valids Emile Servan-Schreiber.

Via our good friends at Forecasting Principles
American Scientist:
Forrest Nelson, a professor of economics at the University of Iowa, helped to found the Iowa Electronic Markets. He and his colleagues faced considerable push-back from their university’s lawyers in setting up a real-money exchange, but they persevered and eventually were granted “no-action” letters from the Commodity Futures [...]

The Case for Decrimininalization of Prediction Markets

[This article is cross-posted from Major Wager.]
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A recent article in the prestigious academic journal Science (May 16, 2008, Vol 320, p. 877-8) once again makes the case for regulated prediction markets, more commonly known as “betting exchanges” to online gamblers. The authors make the case that such markets are useful in forecasting future events with [...]

The American Enterprise Institute’s proposals to legalize real-money prediction markets in the United States of America

The Promise of Prediction Markets – by Kenneth J. Arrow, Robert Forsythe, Michael Gorham, Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, John O. Ledyard, Saul Levmore, Robert Litan, Paul Milgrom, Forrest D. Nelson, George R. Neumann, Marco Ottaviani, Thomas C. Schelling, Robert J. Shiller, Vernon L. Smith, Erik Snowberg, Cass R. Sunstein, Paul C. Tetlock, Philip E. Tetlock, [...]

IS IT SAFE TO LOCATE A PREDICTION EXCHANGE NEAR A RIVER???

BetFair HQ in Hammersmith, London, England, United Kingdom, European Union
At its feet, the river Thames…
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Previously: River rising. Power plant closed. Is the Iowa Electronic Markets at risk?
“This is an emergency such as we’ve never seen before, with unprecedented threats to our campus,” University of Iowa President Sally Mason said. “This is getting dangerous now.”
Wikipedia on [...]

RIVER RISING. POWER PLANT CLOSED. IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS AT RISK? DEVELOPING…

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“The river [which passes thru the U of I] is expected to reach 33 feet to 34 feet Monday or early Tuesday. Flood stage is 25 feet.“
“This is an emergency such as we’ve never seen before, with unprecedented threats to our campus,” University of Iowa President Sally Mason said. “This is getting dangerous now.”
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U of [...]

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