Tag Archives: Iowa

2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: Prediction Markets for the 2008 US Electoral College

Posted on July 10, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

ELECTORAL COLLEGE MARKETS: Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland —(electoralmarkets.com). By Lance Fortnow, David Pennock, and Yiling Chen. – - #1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – A prediction market is a … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Resources - References | Tagged 2008 electoral map prediction, 2008 US elections, 2008 US electoral map prediction, 2008 US presidential elections, America, Americans, CNN, David Pennock, electoral college, electoral college markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, electoral markets, electoral predictions, electoral vote, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Iowa, Lance Fortnow, market data, objective probabilistic predictions, Political Party, Politics, predicted probabilities, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Predictions, President, Prime Minister, probabilistic predictions, real-money prediction markets, Robin Hanson, U.S. House of Representatives, United Kingdom, United States, United States Of America, United States Senate, US elections, US electoral college, US House Of Representatives Elections, US politics, US presidential elections, USD, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party, Yahoo!, Yiling Chen | 1 Comment

What I said to BusinessWeek

Posted on July 7, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

BusinessWeek’s Ricky McRoskey: Experts expect the initial reaction to CFTC regulation to be more low-cap, nonprofit markets like the one created by the University of Iowa. Some doubt the forecasting power in these small-scale markets, since there wouldn’t be enough … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations | Tagged BetFair, BusinessWeek, Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, Editor, InTrade, Iowa, prediction markets, Ricky McRoskey, The University of Iowa, TradeFair, TradeSports | 2 Comments

Are US-based real-money prediction exchanges to become federally regulated (as DCMs)? Or semi-regulated (as ECMs, or as exchanges covered by “no-action” letters)?

Posted on July 7, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

BusinessWeek: In its request for comment, the CFTC reminded the public that the commission should “promote innovation for futures and derivatives.” It also added that â€”hint, hintâ€” the Iowa markets have been valuable sources of public information and have predicted … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged Bell, BusinessWeek, CFTC, Chapman law professor, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, HedgeStreet, Iowa, laws, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Tom W. Bell, United States | Leave a comment

Tom W. Bell rebuts the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).

Posted on July 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Tom W. Bell: The CFTC should not limit “no action” status to markets run by tax-exempt organizations. The no-action letters that the CFTC issued to the IEM emphasized not the nature of the hosting institution, the University of Iowa, but … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged American Enterprise Institute, CFTC, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, for-profit prediction exchanges, Iowa, Iraq, laws, not-for-profit prediction exchanges, Paul Wolfowitz, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Regulations, The University of Iowa, Tom W. Bell, United States Of America | Leave a comment

Let’s Tell the CFTC Where to Go.

Posted on July 3, 2008 by Tom W. Bell

Update: I’ve extended the deadline for signing up until 7 p.m. Pacific, Sunday, July 6. Also, I fixed a typo in paragraph 3, changing “denying” to “giving.” (Thanks, Gil!)> The deadline looms for interested parties to respond to the Commodity … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged CFTC, Commodities Futures Trading Commission, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, for-profit prediction exchanges, Iowa, laws, not-for-profit prediction exchanges, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Regulations, The University of Iowa, Trader, USD | 13 Comments

Forrest Nelson valids Emile Servan-Schreiber.

Posted on June 27, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Via our good friends at Forecasting Principles American Scientist: Forrest Nelson, a professor of economics at the University of Iowa, helped to found the Iowa Electronic Markets. He and his colleagues faced considerable push-back from their university’s lawyers in setting … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, History | Tagged accuracy, Brian Galebach, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, David Pennock, Emile Servan-Schreiber, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Forrest Nelson, Iowa, Iowa Electronic Markets, Justin Wolfers, play-money prediction markets, prediction markets, professor of economics, real-money prediction markets, scientist, The University of Iowa | Leave a comment

The Case for Decrimininalization of Prediction Markets

Posted on June 26, 2008 by Jay Graziani

[This article is cross-posted from Major Wager.] – A recent article in the prestigious academic journal Science (May 16, 2008, Vol 320, p. 877-8) once again makes the case for regulated prediction markets, more commonly known as “betting exchanges” to … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged Bear Sterns, BetFair, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, decision-making tool, Dublin, economist, Enron, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, federal law, Internet casinos, Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, internet gambling laws, InTrade, Iowa, Iraq, Jay Graziani, Justin Wolfers, laws, Major, MATCHBOOK, Middle East, National Basketball Association, NBA, oil, oil crisis, online gamblers, online prediction markets, Pennsylvania, Pentagon, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, profit-making tools, real-money prediction exchanges, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, S&P 500, sports betting, Stanford, the Science, The University of Iowa, the University of Pennsylvania, TradeSports, United States, United States Congress, Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, Wager, Wharton School, Yale | 1 Comment

The American Enterprise Institute’s proposals to legalize real-money prediction markets in the United States of America

Posted on June 17, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The Promise of Prediction Markets – by Kenneth J. Arrow, Robert Forsythe, Michael Gorham, Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, John O. Ledyard, Saul Levmore, Robert Litan, Paul Milgrom, Forrest D. Nelson, George R. Neumann, Marco Ottaviani, Thomas C. Schelling, Robert J. … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged AEI, American Enterprise Institute, Cass R. Sunstein, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Congress, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, event derivative markets, event derivatives, federal regulatory agency, Forrest D. Nelson, George R. Neumann, Hal R. Varian, Iowa, Iraq, Jason Ruspini, John O. Ledyard, Justin Wolfers, Kenneth J. Arrow, laws, legalization, Marco Ottaviani, Michael Gorham, Paul C. Tetlock, Paul Milgrom, Paul Wolfowitz, Philip E. Tetlock, Porter, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Robert Forsythe, Robert Hahn, Robert J. Shiller, Robert Litan, Robin Hanson, Saul Levmore, sports events, The University of Iowa, Thomas C. Schelling, Tom W. Bell, United States Of America, US Congress, USD, Vernon L. Smith, young economist | 27 Comments

IS IT SAFE TO LOCATE A PREDICTION EXCHANGE NEAR A RIVER???

Posted on June 15, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

BetFair HQ in Hammersmith, London, England, United Kingdom, European Union At its feet, the river Thames… – - Previously: River rising. Power plant closed. Is the Iowa Electronic Markets at risk? “This is an emergency such as we’ve never seen … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Miscellaneous | Tagged BetFair, BetFair address, BetFair building, BetFair corporate office, BetFair headquarters, BetFair HQ, Chancellors Road, European Union, floods, HammerSmith, Hammersmith Embankment, Iowa, Iowa Electronic Markets, London, prediction markets, President, river, river Thames, Sally Mason, Thames, The Sporting Exhange, United Kingdom, University of Iowa, Winslow Road | Leave a comment

RIVER RISING. POWER PLANT CLOSED. IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS AT RISK? DEVELOPING…

Posted on June 15, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- “The river [which passes thru the U of I] is expected to reach 33 feet to 34 feet Monday or early Tuesday. Flood stage is 25 feet.“ “This is an emergency such as we’ve never seen before, with unprecedented … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Miscellaneous | Tagged floods, Iowa, Iowa Electronic Markets, prediction markets, President, Sally Mason, University of Iowa | 1 Comment

Tag Archives: Iowa

Meta

Recent Posts