Tag Archives: IEM

Wolfy is cited FIVE TIMES in this prediction market story.

Posted on December 1, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Political prediction markets @ Politico –> The sur-excited Wolfy exaggerates the usefulness of the prediction markets. –> ‘Yay, free markets!… Greed is good!… Yep, people respond to incentives!… Markets work!… Capitalism triumphs.’

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged BetFair, bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, IEM, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, Justin Wolfers, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, US politics | Leave a comment

Beware the propaganda sent out by the executives of the prediction exchanges

Posted on November 13, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

A Iowa Electronic Markets director has been caught (by a young student) red-hand over-selling the IEM predictive power…!!!… First of all, thank you for your continued work on the IEM. [MicroSoft Word file] It’s great to see a continued and … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, BetFair, betting markets, event derivative markets, HubDub, IEM, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, Jed Christiansen, polls, prediction accuracy, prediction markets, propaganda, propagandas | 4 Comments

Reuters cite InTrade and the IEM…

Posted on October 16, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

… but not HubDub with which they have a partnership. Still room for improvement, there.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Prediction Journalism | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, HubDub, IEM, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, Journalism, marketing, prediction market journalism, prediction markets | Leave a comment

InTrade has surpassed BetFair and TradeSports (and the Iowa Electronic Markets, too).

Posted on September 30, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

InTrade’s PageRank is now 7 / 10 —while all the other major prediction market firms are at 6 / 10. It shows that the prediction market approach is paying off. Do provide journalist-friendly objective probabilistic predictions (expressed in percentages –not … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, business models, economists, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, free publicity, Google PageRank, IEM, Internet Marketing, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, Journalism, journalists, marketing, media coverage, PageRank, PR, prediction exchanges, prediction market approach, prediction markets, public relations, TradeSports | 3 Comments

Illiquid prediction exchanges to liquid prediction exchanges: “You’re too volatile.”

Posted on September 17, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Previously: Emile Servan-Schreiber on InTrade’s volatility

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity | Tagged accuracy, bet exchanges, betting exchanges, betting markets, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, IEM, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, liquidity, prediction exchanges, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Nobel laureate Gary Becker and judge Richard Posner both wish that, one day, real-money prediction markets will be legal, without restrictions, in the United States of America.

Posted on September 16, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Via David Pennock of Odd Head fame – Gary Becker: [...] I believe that online political prediction markets, and other online prediction markets as well, should be legal in the United States and elsewhere, even if the amounts bet were … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Regulations | Tagged accuracy, bet exchanges, betting exchanges, betting markets, derivative exchanges, derivative markets, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Finance, Gary Becker, IEM, Iowa Electronic Markets, laws, legality, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Regulations, Richard Posner, social utility, speculation, United States, United States Of America, US, USA | Leave a comment

WORLD’S #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU IMPLIES THAT THE PREDICTION MARKETS ARE NOT MATURE ENOUGH.

Posted on September 12, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Analysis (Market Efficiency), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Midas Oracle Archives | Tagged arbitrage, BetFair, efficiency, Emile Servan-Schreiber, HubDub, IEM, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, market arbitrage, market efficiency, NewsFutures, play-money prediction markets, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Robin Hanson | 1 Comment

Is Intrade out on a limb?

Posted on September 12, 2008 by Emile Servan-Schreiber

As I write this, Intrade gives the advantage to McCain over Obama and has the Republican party even with the Democratic party to win the election, whereas all the other prediction markets, meaning IEM, Betfair, and the NewsFutures play-money kind … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, bet exchanges, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, efficiency, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, IEM, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, NewsFutures, polls, polls vs. prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction market accuracy, prediction market analysis, prediction market efficiency, prediction markets | 34 Comments

2008 US Elections Prediction: John McCain is now the favorite at InTrade, while all the other prediction exchanges still have Barack Obama ahead. Is InTrade quicker to incorporate the latest polls because of the bigger liquidity of its prediction markets?

Posted on September 11, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Resources - References | Tagged 2008 electoral map prediction, 2008 US congressional elections, 2008 US elections, 2008 US elections prediction, 2008 US presidential elections, America, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic party, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, GOP, HubDub, IEM, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, John McCain, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, Politics, polls, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, probabilistic predictions, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US politics, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, USA, vote predictor | 3 Comments

Hedging your political ads on InTrade or the Iowa Electronic Markets

Posted on September 8, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Centrist Messenger: How it works. Centrist Messenger will issue a refund of the purchase price of the advertisement, if and only if the single candidate that you selected as being supported by your ad does not win the general presidential … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, advertising, betting markets, Centrist Messenger, Democratic presidential candidate, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hedging, hedging your political ads, IEM, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, political ads, political advertising, political event derivatives, political futures, political hedging, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Republican presidential candidate, risk hedging, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections | 3 Comments

Tag Archives: IEM

Meta

Recent Posts