Tag Archives: IEM

Beware the propaganda sent out by the executives of the prediction exchanges

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 13, 2008 — 4 Comments

A Iowa Electronic Markets director has been caught (by a young student) red-hand over-selling the IEM predictive power…!!!…
First of all, thank you for your continued work on the IEM. [MicroSoft Word file] It’s great to see a continued and consistent trader base and methodology.
But I do have to admit that I am very uncomfortable [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Traditional Forecasting | Also tagged accuracy, BetFair, betting markets, event derivative markets, HubDub, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, Jed Christiansen, polls, prediction accuracy, prediction markets, propaganda, propagandas

Reuters cite InTrade and the IEM…

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 16, 2008 — Leave a Comment

… but not HubDub with which they have a partnership.
Still room for improvement, there.

Hearthis post

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing, Prediction Market Journalism | Also tagged 2008 US presidential elections, HubDub, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, Journalism, marketing, prediction market journalism, prediction markets

InTrade has surpassed BetFair and TradeSports (and the Iowa Electronic Markets, too).

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 30, 2008 — 3 Comments

InTrade’s PageRank is now 7 / 10 —while all the other major prediction market firms are at 6 / 10.

It shows that the prediction market approach is paying off. Do provide journalist-friendly objective probabilistic predictions (expressed in percentages –not those fucking decimal odds), and the media will link to you, thanks to all the free-market [...]

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing | Also tagged BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, business models, economists, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, free publicity, Google PageRank, internet marketing, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, Journalism, journalists, marketing, media coverage, PageRank, PR, prediction exchanges, prediction market approach, prediction markets, public relations, TradeSports

Illiquid prediction exchanges to liquid prediction exchanges: “You’re too volatile.”

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 17, 2008 — Leave a Comment

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Previously: Emile Servan-Schreiber on InTrade’s volatility

Hearthis post

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity | Also tagged accuracy, bet exchanges, betting exchanges, betting markets, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, liquidity, prediction exchanges, prediction markets

Nobel laureate Gary Becker and judge Richard Posner both wish that, one day, real-money prediction markets will be legal, without restrictions, in the United States of America.

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 16, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Via David Pennock of Odd Head fame
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Gary Becker:
[...] I believe that online political prediction markets, and other online prediction markets as well, should be legal in the United States and elsewhere, even if the amounts bet were quite large. There is no important substantive difference between such online betting markets and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Regulations | Also tagged accuracy, bet exchanges, betting exchanges, betting markets, derivative exchanges, derivative markets, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Finance, Gary Becker, Iowa Electronic Markets, laws, legality, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Regulations, Richard Posner, social utility, speculation, United States, United States Of America, US, USA

WORLD’S #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU IMPLIES THAT THE PREDICTION MARKETS ARE NOT MATURE ENOUGH.

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 12, 2008 — 1 Comment

Hearthis post

Posted in Analysis (Market Efficiency), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Midas Oracle Archives | Also tagged arbitrage, BetFair, efficiency, Emile Servan-Schreiber, HubDub, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, market arbitrage, market efficiency, NewsFutures, play-money prediction markets, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Robin Hanson

Is Intrade out on a limb?

Written by Emile Servan-Schreiber on September 12, 2008 — 34 Comments

As I write this, Intrade gives the advantage to McCain over Obama and has the Republican party even with the Democratic party to win the election, whereas all the other prediction markets, meaning IEM, Betfair, and the NewsFutures play-money kind still favor a Democrat in the White House. That disconnect prompted Chris to wonder aloud [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Traditional Forecasting | Also tagged accuracy, bet exchanges, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, efficiency, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, NewsFutures, polls, polls vs. prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction market accuracy, prediction market analysis, prediction market efficiency, prediction markets

2008 US Elections Prediction: John McCain is now the favorite at InTrade, while all the other prediction exchanges still have Barack Obama ahead. Is InTrade quicker to incorporate the latest polls because of the bigger liquidity of its prediction markets?

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 11, 2008 — 3 Comments

#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets
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A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Resources & References | Also tagged 2008 electoral map prediction, 2008 US congressional elections, 2008 US elections, 2008 US elections prediction, 2008 US presidential elections, America, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic party, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, GOP, HubDub, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, John McCain, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, Politics, polls, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, probabilistic predictions, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US politics, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, USA, vote predictor

Hedging your political ads on InTrade or the Iowa Electronic Markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 8, 2008 — 3 Comments

Centrist Messenger: How it works.
Centrist Messenger will issue a refund of the purchase price of the advertisement, if and only if the single candidate that you selected as being supported by your ad does not win the general presidential election of the United States and the other candidate wins.
About Centrist Messenger – Video @ YouTube

Hearthis [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Internet Marketing | Also tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, advertising, betting markets, Centrist Messenger, Democratic presidential candidate, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hedging, hedging your political ads, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, political ads, political advertising, political event derivatives, political futures, political hedging, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Republican presidential candidate, risk hedging, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections

2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: The 2008 US elections thru the prism of the prediction markets — 2008 US presidential and congressional elections — US President Prediction + US Congress Prediction — Barack Obama vs. John McCain

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 4, 2008 — Leave a Comment

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#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets
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A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged 2008 electoral map prediction, 2008 US congressional elections, 2008 US elections, 2008 US electoral map prediction, 2008 US presidential elections, America, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative markets, event derivatives, GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, John McCain, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, Politics, polls, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, probabilistic predictions, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, Traditional Forecasting, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US politics, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, USA, vote predictor

Tag Archives: IEM

Beware the propaganda sent out by the executives of the prediction exchanges

Reuters cite InTrade and the IEM…

InTrade has surpassed BetFair and TradeSports (and the Iowa Electronic Markets, too).

Illiquid prediction exchanges to liquid prediction exchanges: “You’re too volatile.”

WORLD’S #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU IMPLIES THAT THE PREDICTION MARKETS ARE NOT MATURE ENOUGH.

Is Intrade out on a limb?

2008 US Elections Prediction: John McCain is now the favorite at InTrade, while all the other prediction exchanges still have Barack Obama ahead. Is InTrade quicker to incorporate the latest polls because of the bigger liquidity of its prediction markets?

Hedging your political ads on InTrade or the Iowa Electronic Markets

2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: The 2008 US elections thru the prism of the prediction markets — 2008 US presidential and congressional elections — US President Prediction + US Congress Prediction — Barack Obama vs. John McCain

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