Monthly Archives: September 2008

InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair and Betdaq should re-package prediction makets as insurance or contingent goods.

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Finance, Inventions & Innovations | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Long-Term Prediction Markets

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Mercury, Xpree, HubDub, Media Predict, The Sim Exchange, Ask Markets, iPredict New Zealand, Smarkets, Red Monitor, etc.: Will they be still with us next year?

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Entrepreneurship, The Global Economy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Why would we take seriously a blogger who don’t get the basic facts straight, and who don’t embed any external web links in his post?

Posted in Ethics, Humor, Miscellaneous | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The best thing since the wheel and sliced bread…

- … is WordPress, of course —the blogging software that powers Midas Oracle. Today, Alex King introduces Carrington, a revolutionary theme (i.e. a software piece that organizes the layout of a WordPress-powered blog). Let’s dig that, folks. That gives me … Continue reading

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Exago Markets, Portugal, E.U.

- As I understand it: – Prediction market consultancy in Portugal; – They probably licensed Xpree‘s software for enterprise prediction markets. UPDATE: They created their own software for enterprise prediction markets. Best wishes to them. -

Posted in Consulting, Exchanges & Markets, Software | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Are we witnessing manipulation attempts on the Florida prediction market at InTrade?

Florida went blue around 8:51 PM, on September 26, 2008… for a brief period of time: – The Democratic side: – Tip via Lance Fortnow – Previously:Is InTrade being manipulated? – UPDATE: See Jason Ruspini’s expert analysis in the comment … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Tagged , , , , , , | 7 Comments

Prediction market journalism becomes mainstream.

A good enough (although atrociously elliptic) implementation is provided by Wall Street wiz (and ex convict) Henry Blodget. Many modules are missing, but it’s good enough. Henry Blodget made an effort on data visualization —something Justin Wolfers never did.

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Historical Prediction Markets

The ProQuest P.R. machine sends Koleman Strumpf’s research paper on the historical prediction markets to all journalists, so as to generate good Press for ProQuest, and it works fine, as intended. [CORRECTION: Jack Shafer found the Strumpf paper on his … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta), Betting, Exchanges & Markets, History, Prediction Journalism, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

All against the BetFair premium charges

Excellent analysis from the “Punt” blogger. Serial bet winners are accused (that’s the word) to withdraw money from the BetFair machine, compelling BetFair to attract new money from newbies at a high marketing cost, and thus BetFair has decided to … Continue reading

Posted in Betting, Ethics, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Market Transaction Costs | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 16 Comments